Thoughts from the Russian Federation

[Isoko]

(11-10-2019, 06:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(11-10-2019, 02:10 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I doubt Isoko thinks the generational cycle could only last 40 years or so.

What I'm seeing is:

50+ - Civics who came of age before the collapse of the Soviet Union.  I suppose you could say they were on the losing side, with the other Soviet and Warsaw Pact states on the winning side.  Putin is in this generation

35-50 - Adaptives.

20-35 - Idealists.  Anti-Putin, which seems likely to be a generational rift.

"Children" - Reactives.  I would agree that this doesn't fit well; his description would better fit Civics.  But how would the 50+ be Idealists?  The dethroning of Stalin would be too far back to be an awakening on this timeline.

Warren, 

The problem with trying to assign a generational fit to Russia is that it is nigh on impossible. The reason for this is the amount of crisises this country gets compared to say Western countries. Like one guy said to me, he is 38 and has lived through 3 crisises. Collapse of the communism, hard 90s and 1998 banking crisis then the Ukraine debacle. We he see a fourth crisis? So in actual reality, Russia is like a country that has a regular 4T every generation, not just every four generations. 

Overall though you have a good picture of what the generations is for Russia but do take into account the constant 4T element. As for the children, I have done some esoteric research and Russians next crisis is going to be the 2040-2050 period, when the kids start to get into power. I forsee them having a great 2020s-2030s but 2040s is what I forsee the birth of the next Putin. I. E the strong leader. 

And I hate to contradict Eric but Russians, whilst they want democracy, still want a strong leader. Putin is just another tradition I'm this way of governance. Its always about the strong king and it goes back to Rurik. They get strong Kings, country prospers. Weak Kings and the country collapses. You can see the pattern here. So Western style democracy won't work here. There will be democracy but it'll still be centred around the great leader mindset.

Tbh when it comes to Russia, 2T generations are an extreme rarity. In fact I would even argue that there is no silent generation but one big generation of civics. The generation born in 1920-1940, 1940-1960 and 1960-1980 all fit the same civic pattern. So literally three civic generations rolled into one.

So technically we could say 1920 - 1980 is civic, 1970-1985 sort of has a nomad feel but is still civicish, 1990-2000 is prophet and 2010 onwards is again civic. Hard for you guys to wrap your heads around but that seems to be the general pattern here.

And the only reason the 2T is happening is because of Putin. Since he stabilised the system, it allowed more leisure time and globalisation to creep in. But once again it all really does revolve around this strong leader concept.