When did the current 4T begin?

[Warren Dew]

I no longer think there's a clear demarcation between the third and fourth turnings, the way there is between the end of the fourth turning and the beginning of the following saeculum. Rather, there's an approximate date, and an event is picked in retrospect. If the crisis war ends up being, say, a nuclear war between the middle east and the US, then we'll pick 9/11 as the precursor of that war. If the war ends up being between the US and Europe, we'll pick something else.