When did the current 4T begin?

[Eric the Green]

(11-27-2019, 09:58 PM)ResidentArtist Wrote: I'm probably in the minority here, but based on my perception and personal experiences, I think the 4T began with 9/11 and deepened with the Great Recession. It's sort of like a reverse of the previous crisis, which started with economic depression and deepened with Pearl Harbor.

Just because not everyone was affected by it (as I've seen suggested elsewhere) doesn't mean the event wasn't a catalyst that changed the national mood. Remember that not everyone was personally affected by the Boston Tea Party in the Revolutionary Saeculum either. The Intolerable Acts which resulted from it were targeted at Massachusetts, yet Strauss and Howe cited it as the beginning of that crisis. It produced enough national fervor that independence started to be considered as a serious possibility.

That the mid-2000s seemed to have returned to 3T normalcy is also not necessarily evidence of a start date of 2008. It isn't uncommon for crisis eras to cool down in between before things get bad again. This is evident by how just four years after a triumphant victory at Yorktown, a Constitutional Convention was needed to prevent the new nation from falling apart financially and politically. Even in the Great Power Saeculum, there is a period of time during FDR's presidency where unemployment drops from nearly 25% in 1933 to a figure of 14.3% four years later, before the recession of 1938 and World War II's start revived troubles.

Thirdly, many later events aren't as separate as one might think. The economy was already being strained by the trillions being spent on two wars being waged in the Middle East and likely worsened the Great Recession. What's more is that 9/11 and the instability it caused led the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates from 3.5% to less than 2% by the end of 2001 to boost consumer confidence, fueling economic bubbles along with them. When they increased again in 2005, so did mortgage prices. 9/11 therefore ramped up the Recession and snowballed into the numerous other effects of that meltdown.

While that day is not clear to me, I do remember certain elements of the aftermath. My childhood school used to play Lee Greenwood's "God Bless the USA" every morning, although I didn't see the context of it until later on. It just seemed like something we always did as Americans, so we took direction first and asked questions later, much like how Fourth Turnings go down. It ultimately goes without saying that 9/11 fundamentally changed the national aura into one driven by a sense of urgency. Isn't that what the start of the 4T does?

Thanks for your views.

I think many T4T observers say the Great Recession was the beginning of the 4T because it fomented a national mood in which the people knew that the nation was falling off a financial and economic cliff. On the other hand, 9-11 did not lead to such a mood of national emergency. It did lead to a war, and it was also the poor excuse for a second war. But the wars were not fought in a spirit of national dedication to the cause, and no sacrifice was expected except of the soldiers who went. The war on terror continues, but it is simmering rather than commanding the national attention. The second war was very controversial and the people were divided over it. There are smaller scale US wars like these in almost every turning.

The conditions that make this 4T what it is are not any kind of shared spirit of national emergency and patriotism such as you felt was a part of your life after 9-11. What makes this a 4T is the cold civil war that divides the nation. The controversy over the US invasion of Iraq was part of that division, although it goes back to the 2T. Now the two halves of our nation cannot communicate with each other. This is a crisis because national and world problems are getting worse, including the existential world threat of climate change, and the USA government cannot act. The 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession imposed poverty on about half the country, and elevated the tensions. Nothing has been done about this except an early stimulus package. Politicians have arisen advocating revolution, and another politician stoked the national divide to get elected president of the USA by scapegoating outgroups. This is a return of the racism before the Second World War. What's worse, this president violates the rule of law and the constitution, but half the country supports him anyway. Just having such a president is in itself a great crisis for our country. Democracy is on the line, and half of Americans are ready to put this celebrity demagogue in power for life, no matter what he does.

Remember also that the Great Recession was felt in Europe and the Middle East very strongly and also elsewhere. The result was the Arab Spring uprising in 2011, which was imitated all over the world. This set off civil wars, especially in Syria, which resulted in a huge refugee crisis that inflamed nationalist and racist tendencies in Europe and the USA. The UK has been embroiled in the Brexit controversy because of this refugee crisis. If Britain leaves the UK it will weaken it and leave it subject to greater influence by oppressive racist and nationalist regimes that have taken over Eastern Europe, just as Russia has become belligerent and is now employing every tactic to weaken the West. Just what further crisis all this may lead to is still unclear.