12-30-2019, 06:35 PM
Reading through these forums, it seems a number of people here believe that this will somehow turn out to be a mild crisis where not much happens. But if the Fourth Turning theories are correct, this cannot be the case. As fractured and fragmented as the U.S. is culturally, nothing less than a major crisis could put it back together again. This leaves a few likely possibilities for the Crisis, which I'll discuss briefly here.
First, it could resolve itself in an enormous war. The only powers in the world which could realistically take on the U.S., and which there's any reasonable chance of the U.S. fighting, would be China and Russia. As Crises are an opportunity to resolve issues, it may be that the U.S., and some of its allies, go to war against both China and Russia, under the idea that all nations must be democratic. This could result in a vastly strengthened United Nations which has real power, an actual global government.
Failing that, the U.S. is left with a civil or revolutionary war.
One possibility is portions of the U.S. attempting to break off and form their own country. While this is certainly possible, I don't see this as being the core of the crisis or the resolution of it, as that's not where the fault lines are in the country today. The political divide in the U.S. of left versus right wing is not geographic; rural areas are conservative while cities are liberal. There's no way to string together all the cities to make a separate nation, nor can the south reasonably rise again when the 30% of its people who are black will have no interest in forming a separate new confederacy.
This leaves us with a revolutionary war of one sort or another.
From the right, you could have a military coup, as some president, with the help of the military, suspends the congress and simply takes over. From the left, you have the possibility of a socialist revolution. In either case, they couldn't happen until the climate allowing them was in place. A socialist revolution can't happen in a wealthy prosperous society, people have to be poor and hungry before they're ready to overthrow the system in such a way. Similarly, things would have to be really bad before the military would be willing to set aside the constitution and put a dictator in place.
There is, of course, the possibility that parts of all of this happen. The U.S. goes to war against Russia or China, both sides pledge not to use nuclear weapons unless necessary, the west coast of the U.S. tries to break off and form its own country, Texas announces it's going its own way as well, all hell is breaking loose and the economy has gone to hell, and now some attempt at a government takeover, left or right, takes place.
It's difficult to say which would end up worse. An all out nuclear war would of course be the worst possible option. Every socialist revolution has ended in utter disaster. A right wing government takeover could result in massive amounts of ethnic cleansing, if the U.S. decided to send all members of various races or religions back to their countries of origin.
One way or another, I think this is going to be far, far worse than many of you here are imagining.
First, it could resolve itself in an enormous war. The only powers in the world which could realistically take on the U.S., and which there's any reasonable chance of the U.S. fighting, would be China and Russia. As Crises are an opportunity to resolve issues, it may be that the U.S., and some of its allies, go to war against both China and Russia, under the idea that all nations must be democratic. This could result in a vastly strengthened United Nations which has real power, an actual global government.
Failing that, the U.S. is left with a civil or revolutionary war.
One possibility is portions of the U.S. attempting to break off and form their own country. While this is certainly possible, I don't see this as being the core of the crisis or the resolution of it, as that's not where the fault lines are in the country today. The political divide in the U.S. of left versus right wing is not geographic; rural areas are conservative while cities are liberal. There's no way to string together all the cities to make a separate nation, nor can the south reasonably rise again when the 30% of its people who are black will have no interest in forming a separate new confederacy.
This leaves us with a revolutionary war of one sort or another.
From the right, you could have a military coup, as some president, with the help of the military, suspends the congress and simply takes over. From the left, you have the possibility of a socialist revolution. In either case, they couldn't happen until the climate allowing them was in place. A socialist revolution can't happen in a wealthy prosperous society, people have to be poor and hungry before they're ready to overthrow the system in such a way. Similarly, things would have to be really bad before the military would be willing to set aside the constitution and put a dictator in place.
There is, of course, the possibility that parts of all of this happen. The U.S. goes to war against Russia or China, both sides pledge not to use nuclear weapons unless necessary, the west coast of the U.S. tries to break off and form its own country, Texas announces it's going its own way as well, all hell is breaking loose and the economy has gone to hell, and now some attempt at a government takeover, left or right, takes place.
It's difficult to say which would end up worse. An all out nuclear war would of course be the worst possible option. Every socialist revolution has ended in utter disaster. A right wing government takeover could result in massive amounts of ethnic cleansing, if the U.S. decided to send all members of various races or religions back to their countries of origin.
One way or another, I think this is going to be far, far worse than many of you here are imagining.