01-04-2020, 12:13 PM
Hi guys,
Sorry for the late reply but you know how life can get in the way. Anyway back to the discussion points to be made, I think once again Eric hit a very good point when he said that Russia only has 1st and 4th turnings. I would say that has been my thinking also as there seems to be a crisis every generation. When one of my students remarked on living through three crisises in his life time, I think that symbolises something.
There is sort of a youth rebellion going on in Russia against Putin but its nothing like the US Awakening with the baby boomers. It's more to do with the youth are, how to say, looking for a new king and they think that just by adopting western democracy (which has stopped working effectively I'd like to add) they can magically make the country rich and life in Russia will just be like Friends on the TV. I'd argue in essence it is another huge naivete and reminds me of the generation that survived in the hard 90s.
They thought that once Communism ended, Yeltsin would bring in Democracy and everything would radically improve overnight. It didn't and instead led to Putin actually radically improving the country which people happily supported until one key thing: the pensions.
That is correct. People were actually content with Putin, half the country even supporting his annexation of the Crimea, until he decided to raise the pension age. That was it, overnight the country hated him. Had he left the pensions alone, he would be alot more popular right now and people content with his leadership.
If history is anything to go by, Putin will eventually retire, there will be a period of weak leaders, an attempt at democracy which ultimately fails and eventually the return of another Putin who once again raises living standards. It seems to be a repeat cycle here.
My own personal thesis on this is the environment. America has had it relatively easy and this allows different generations to develop and go with the ups and downs of the economic climate of life. Russia on the other hand has been on survival mode since she was founded and as a result no real, genuine new ideas have come from Russia. Its hard to get creative when everyone is attacking you or the climate freezes you to death. This itself has developed a nation of hardy conservatives which due to the decline of Europe could play to use in future relations.
Sorry for the late reply but you know how life can get in the way. Anyway back to the discussion points to be made, I think once again Eric hit a very good point when he said that Russia only has 1st and 4th turnings. I would say that has been my thinking also as there seems to be a crisis every generation. When one of my students remarked on living through three crisises in his life time, I think that symbolises something.
There is sort of a youth rebellion going on in Russia against Putin but its nothing like the US Awakening with the baby boomers. It's more to do with the youth are, how to say, looking for a new king and they think that just by adopting western democracy (which has stopped working effectively I'd like to add) they can magically make the country rich and life in Russia will just be like Friends on the TV. I'd argue in essence it is another huge naivete and reminds me of the generation that survived in the hard 90s.
They thought that once Communism ended, Yeltsin would bring in Democracy and everything would radically improve overnight. It didn't and instead led to Putin actually radically improving the country which people happily supported until one key thing: the pensions.
That is correct. People were actually content with Putin, half the country even supporting his annexation of the Crimea, until he decided to raise the pension age. That was it, overnight the country hated him. Had he left the pensions alone, he would be alot more popular right now and people content with his leadership.
If history is anything to go by, Putin will eventually retire, there will be a period of weak leaders, an attempt at democracy which ultimately fails and eventually the return of another Putin who once again raises living standards. It seems to be a repeat cycle here.
My own personal thesis on this is the environment. America has had it relatively easy and this allows different generations to develop and go with the ups and downs of the economic climate of life. Russia on the other hand has been on survival mode since she was founded and as a result no real, genuine new ideas have come from Russia. Its hard to get creative when everyone is attacking you or the climate freezes you to death. This itself has developed a nation of hardy conservatives which due to the decline of Europe could play to use in future relations.