01-10-2020, 05:55 PM
(01-10-2020, 03:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:So, who is dumb enough to land and takeoff from there now? How many commercial travelers and global site seer's would vote to do that now vs vote to completely avoid doing any of that now? My mother was in Syria when the holy war started again back in the late 90's. I was on the 19th hole when CNN announced that the cease fire between the Palestinians and the Israelis had ended and watched as stuff was being blown up by Hamas and Hezbollah and Israeli forces. I remember the words I said to my friend, " Great, my mom is over there right now". My friend didn't know my mom was over there. I would have said fuck but fuck wasn't appropriate for the place we were in at the time,(01-10-2020, 09:27 AM)Skabungus Wrote: The minute I heard a civilian jet dropped out of the air in Iran in the midst of the missile attack on American bases I assumed it was a jumpy Iranian SAM battery suspecting what they should naturally expect in such a scenario: American jets coming to bomb Iranian targets. I didn't entertain other possibilities like American jets actually penetrating Iranian airspace to take out Iranian planes, or ISIS or other non-state actors trying to capitalize on the situation.
It seems pretty simple. I've never been in the military, or had any experience in a shooting war, but I've done a lot of crisis scenario simulations and emergency response simulations, and played a good amount of paintball. In all cases jumpy actors are common, even with extensive training to prevent such mistakes. Friendly fire and targeting mistakes remain common problems.
1. You do not fire missiles in the range of a major airport if the airspace near that airport is safe. Commercial jetliners are not fair game.
2. I expect Iran to make an example of anyone culpable -- enough lashes to bring someone almost to the point of insensibility followed by a particularly brutal form of hanging (the wretch is raised by a crane and allowed to dangle and slowly strangle).
3. Airspace around large-scale commercial airports such as JFK, Orly, and Narita is very closely watched.
4. The regular Iranian armed services seem ill-trained. Far too much emphasis is put on the Revolutionary Guards necessary for stifling dissent in Iran.