01-13-2020, 10:50 AM
(01-10-2020, 09:27 AM)Skabungus Wrote: The minute I heard a civilian jet dropped out of the air in Iran in the midst of the missile attack on American bases I assumed it was a jumpy Iranian SAM battery suspecting what they should naturally expect in such a scenario: American jets coming to bomb Iranian targets. I didn't entertain other possibilities like American jets actually penetrating Iranian airspace to take out Iranian planes, or ISIS or other non-state actors trying to capitalize on the situation.
It seems pretty simple. I've never been in the military, or had any experience in a shooting war, but I've done a lot of crisis scenario simulations and emergency response simulations, and played a good amount of paintball. In all cases jumpy actors are common, even with extensive training to prevent such mistakes. Friendly fire and targeting mistakes remain common problems.
What you describe is traditionally called the fog of war. The higher the state of tension, and the shorter the response time available, the more likely incidents like this will occur.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.