How this Crisis will be resolved (for the U.S.)

[Marypoza]

(12-31-2019, 03:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(12-30-2019, 06:35 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: Reading through these forums, it seems a number of people here believe that this will somehow turn out to be a mild crisis where not much happens.  But if the Fourth Turning theories are correct, this cannot be the case.  As fractured and fragmented as the U.S. is culturally, nothing less than a major crisis could put it back together again.  This leaves a few likely possibilities for the Crisis, which I'll discuss briefly here.

First, it could resolve itself in an enormous war.  The only powers in the world which could realistically take on the U.S., and which there's any reasonable chance of the U.S. fighting, would be China and Russia.  As Crises are an opportunity to resolve issues, it may be that the U.S., and some of its allies, go to war against both China and Russia, under the idea that all nations must be democratic.  This could result in a vastly strengthened United Nations which has real power, an actual global government.

Failing that, the U.S. is left with a civil or revolutionary war.

One possibility is portions of the U.S. attempting to break off and form their own country.  While this is certainly possible, I don't see this as being the core of the crisis or the resolution of it, as that's not where the fault lines are in the country today.  The political divide in the U.S. of left versus right wing is not geographic; rural areas are conservative while cities are liberal.  There's no way to string together all the cities to make a separate nation, nor can the south reasonably rise again when the 30% of its people who are black will have no interest in forming a separate new confederacy.

This leaves us with a revolutionary war of one sort or another.

From the right, you could have a military coup, as some president, with the help of the military, suspends the congress and simply takes over.  From the left, you have the possibility of a socialist revolution.  In either case, they couldn't happen until the climate allowing them was in place.  A socialist revolution can't happen in a wealthy prosperous society, people have to be poor and hungry before they're ready to overthrow the system in such a way.  Similarly, things would have to be really bad before the military would be willing to set aside the constitution and put a dictator in place.

There is, of course, the possibility that parts of all of this happen.  The U.S. goes to war against Russia or China, both sides pledge not to use nuclear weapons unless necessary, the west coast of the U.S. tries to break off and form its own country, Texas announces it's going its own way as well, all hell is breaking loose and the economy has gone to hell, and now some attempt at a government takeover, left or right, takes place.

It's difficult to say which would end up worse.  An all out nuclear war would of course be the worst possible option.  Every socialist revolution has ended in utter disaster.  A right wing government takeover could result in massive amounts of ethnic cleansing, if the U.S. decided to send all members of various races or religions back to their countries of origin.

One way or another, I think this is going to be far, far worse than many of you here are imagining.

I think you are basically right. Some people on these forums think either that the 4T never started or that it's already over. It was mild, or consisted of 9-11 and the war on terror, or other such ideas. I am sure that even though the 4T is half over, it has not really fully begun. My reading of the cycles says that it's much like the civil war crisis, which really extended back through the 1850s in an era much like ours has been in the 2010s, but the equivalent of the 1860s is still ahead, and may even arrive only in the mid-2020s.

The civil war is the nearest model of what will happen, but all the other 4Ts may also be models.

I think a total war against China and Russia is unlikely, because I don't think the powers that be in these 3 countries want this badly enough. Friction will continue, but more likely seems to be that the troubles in the Middle East and the war on terror will continue and heat up again, leading to another intervention in 2025 or so. Iran seems to be a flash point again and this could get worse, but that may depend on whether Trump is ousted and the nuclear deal is accepted again by all sides. Meanwhile the whole Kurdish issue is a potential time bomb.

Although civil war and revolution are likely, I have expressed here and in my book what I think is most likely to happen. The 2020s fit into a pattern of progressive decades, and certainly the USA is overdue. Left sentiment is rising, and the Right is going off the rails into insanity. I think demographics indicate declining appeal for neo-liberal trickle-down racism and immigrant bashing; this is the last ditch effort to resist change that is happening. So at some point the liberal side will gain power and neo-liberalism (trickle-down libertarian economics) will lose its place as the default ideology in our government. Social programs and higher taxes will return. This will be more likely if Sanders is elected in 2020, but failing that some Democrat will certainly being it about after 2024. The Right will call it "socialism," although the "progress" and restoration of liberalism won't really go that far. The "revolution" therefore will be a civil rebellion from the right-wing against taxes, environmental regulations, gun control, immigration, and tolerance of diversity. It will be crushed by the liberal government in a couple of years or so, but not without some bloodshed and possible secessions during the process. 

Although the north-american divide is between urban and rural, secession and the division of the country is still possible, because some states are mostly urban and others are mostly rural, and blacks still lack power in the south to resist this. So division of the country between blue and red could still happen, although it's unlikely, and could lead to further division within the states as well. A liberal government is more likely to allow secession to happen without violence than a right-wing one. 

A takeover by the Right instead of the Left in the 2020s is possible, and they have erected many barriers to progress already that will be tough to break through. Elections will depend on the quality of the candidates who run on each side too, so although the outlook is for a progressive decade ahead, exactly to what extent, and how this will unfold, will depend on who runs for office and on other unpredictables. Other parties could rise to power too as the duopoly falls apart. A flood of reforms will be proposed from all sides.

-- don't 4get Eric: Pluto= radical change, transformation Capricorn rules Govt. yeah a revolution is coming alright