What do you believe is the actual length of a saeculum?

[Eric the Green]

(08-13-2019, 10:59 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(08-12-2019, 10:04 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-11-2019, 01:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(08-11-2019, 08:12 AM)Ghost Wrote: A saeculum starting in 1940 won't work because that's when WWII was going on.

1940-1945: 4T
1945-1963: 1T
1963-1980: 2T
1980-2008: 3T
2008-2030: 4T again

In that example I am using John Xenakis's crisis war concept in which saecula are based on crisis wars. WW II is a crisis war. I am assuming that another one starts around 2030. Here I am dating the crisis from beginning of one Crisis War to beginning of the next Crisis War. So your scheme is appropriate except for the 2008-2030 turning which would NOT be a Crisis because the crisis war doesn't begin until 2030.

John still considers the fourth turning to end with the end of the crisis war, not to begin with the beginning of the crisis war.  In the case of a 2030-2035 crisis war, the crisis period could extend from 2008-2035.  The issue with the dates would be that the fourth turning ending in 1945 would have begun earlier, probably in 1929.

Yes I know. S&H considers the saeculum to end at the end of the 4T. But one can, in principle,  date saeculae (i.e periods containing 1 each of all types of turning) using other turning dates as well.  

My understanding of GD is that the crisis war is the key.  There is no crisis without the crisis war, so if we had a crisis war starting in 2030, the crisis would start in 2030. If the GWOT were considered a crisis war then the crisis would start in 2001 and continue until the Patriot Act, the AUMF and other enabling legislation is repealed, and so on.

I don't know what GD means, but the Great Depression was the start of a 4T. The Crisis War can come at the beginning or end of a crisis, and is not strictly identical with the Crisis. I think I agree with Bob (imagine that) that we may be entering a different age when wars are not such automatic occurrences during 4T periods. On the basis of the empirical past record alone though, the odds that a great war will occur during a 4T are high. The War on Terror is not such a "great war" because it has not consumed the affairs of the nation but has been a remote and small scale affair, but such foreign war as happens in the remainder of this 4T will likely continue to be a part of it or related to it. In that case the "war" will have extended across two turnings. WWII as a continuation of WWI, which it was, is a precedent for this pattern.

The Uranus Return has corresponded to the American crisis climax so far, as S&H has defined it, even though S&H have no inclination to consider planetary cycles. This goes back to 1608, one year after Jamestown was established, when the colony was on the brink of extinction. But we came through that crisis. The next one mostly occurred in the motherland but was also fought in the colonies, and was a key event in American history because Britain and the colonies made a big switch from royalism to a parliamentary system. That was in King William's War, and the Return was in 1692 (also the Salem Witch Trial date). The Uranus Return also refers to Uranus' return to its position at the Declaration of Independence, which was also the 2nd Return since Jamestown. It next returned to that position within days of the attack on Ft. Sumpter that started the Civil War. S&H identified D-Day as the next crisis climax in 1944, again within days of the Uranus Return. According to that measure, Uranus will Return to the same degree in 2027.

It's possible that the saecula have been a bit shorter than the 84-year Uranus Cycle in modern times, although in medieval and renaissance times before the British colonies existed it was longer. It's also true that a half-return of Neptune is 82 years, and this will happen just 2 years from now in 2022, and that the first Pluto Return ever will also happen in 2022. The three outer planets are all on a similar time clock, but the outer two have a slightly shorter schedule for their partial half or one-third returns. That means the crisis era could be increasingly stretched out in the centuries to come, and the returns might become less momentous centuries from now because it comes in two such strokes. The USA as we know it may not even exist then, of course, and may not even emerge intact from the current 4T.

Some astrologers use the sidereal "star" or "constellation" zodiac rather than the tropical "seasonal" zodiac, and I'm not sure how that affects the Uranus Return dates. This difference is due to the approx. 25000-year pole shift cycle. For example Mars is now in tropical Sagittarius, but is in now the sidereal constellation of Scorpio as seen in the sky. About every 72 years, the tropical vernal equinox 0 Aries point retreats another degree and is now in about 5 degrees sidereal Pisces. If there is such a thing as "the same place in space," then sidereal may be more accurate as a measure of a planetary return. I find this hard to figure, myself. It's confusing to me what dates the sidereal returns would be. Does it bring on the 4T sooner than tropical astrologers like me expect, or later? If I understand this, it could delay the Returns, since a planet will travel a bit longer to reach its sidereal return degree. That is counter to history though, since the last Crisis Return came sooner, since the Depression and the start of WWII came sooner than D-Day.

The tropical zodiac has much to recommend it, since for example in its current cycle Neptune first crossed the 0 Aries tropical vernal equinox point on April 13, 1861, the exact day when Ft. Sumpter surrendered. The next such ingress (and start of the next Neptune cycle through the tropical zodiac), will happen on March 30, 2025. The final ingress could also be significant on Jan.26, 2026.

As I have said, the Uranus-Pluto cycle is affecting the saeculum, because it signals some kind of great awakening, but this can be secular or sacred. It marks a time of the birth (conjunction) or (climax) of a revolutionary cycle. You may have seen my article on this:
http://philosopherswheel.com/thethreerevolutions.html

Since the conjunction in 1966, within orb about 1963 to 1969, and for some periods during 1962 and 1970, signaled the events that started the 2T-Awakening in the sixties, and since the opposition is due in 2047 (about 2043 to 2050), it may affect the timing of the end of the 4T, if we are going to have a 1T of a decent length. In that case, the 4T would have to end no later than 2029 as Mr. Howe has proposed. This will be the first time that one 2T will be the fulfillment and climax of the one before, as indicated by its correspondence with this Uranus-Pluto cycle.

However, a Uranus-Pluto conjunction can happen during a 1T, as happened in circa 2011. The next opposition marked the end of the revolution 4T, according to S&H, in 1792-94, and the conjunction in 1850 was during the S&H 3T, but which I and others claim was the time around when the civil war 4T started (circa 1850). The 1901 opposition also happened during the previous 2T. In that case, a momentous Neptune-Pluto alignment also happened during that 2T, in 1892, extending its influence from about 1886 to 1898.