The Partisan Divide on Issues

[Cynic Hero '86]

(02-06-2020, 10:15 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(02-06-2020, 08:24 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(01-30-2020, 10:16 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(01-30-2020, 11:12 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(01-30-2020, 07:44 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: When you try to characterize the Koch Brothers as liberal, you do discredit to your own perspective.  You would likely loose the bulk of the posters if you hadn’t lost them already.  Who do you think your garbage has fooled?

Pelosi knows full well how the Republican Establishment senators are not likely to do their duty by the Constitution.  They Establishment Republicans value personal power much more than they value the country.  The coastal media covers it the same way, predicting acquittal.  

I am less sure.  The Republican Establishment couldn’t get the people to back any of their own in 2016, so they had to go with Trump.  With his guilt becoming clearer by the day, will they take the chance to get one of their own in power?  Will the incumbency of a new guy be enough to hold the White House?  After pardoning Nixon, Ford lost his next election.  Will Pence walk that path?  Would he rather see Trump's chant of 'lock her up' be reversed?  Is he deep enough in the drug deal to get impeached himself, or share a cell with Trump?  If Trump has been unable to bring any of his recent candidates to electoral victory, does that mean it is safe for the Establishment Republicans to thumb their nose at him, or do they really need the votes he will bring?

By conventional standards the Democrats have no chance at removing Trump, but they have every chance of discrediting the Establishment Republicans.  That will be big come November.  That is likely what Pelosi is more likely working towards.  Trump will try to rally his supposedly loyal base, only to find the flip flop has flipped.  The principles of division of power and rule of law might well be more American than you think.

I personally see the hypocrisy, with both sides honoring the Constitution only when convenient, and wrapping themselves in the flag when it is.  The Republicans are generally all in favor of the Constitution when the 2nd Amendment comes up.  Both sides take turns speaking on how rare impeachment ought to be, depending on which party holds the White House.  Does congressional oversight of the executive mean anything if the executive branch disregards Congressional subpoenas?  Does anyone appreciate rule of law?

Your ‘I’m right the world is wrong’ approach is most confused.  Liberals know liberal values more than you.  They know what they are striving for, and it is nothing like the demonization you spew out.

Sorry But alot of us have actually watched the primaries and your scenario of election 2020 being based on the electing being about liking Trump vs Not Liking Trump  or his policies (or sensibilities) becomes by the day LESS and LESS likely. The DNC is clearly hell bent on nominating an Authoritarian SJW candidate. Its blatantly obvious that the Democratic Party elites are only considering Warren, Harris, and maybe Klobochar and Buttigieg as Candidates and are actively sabotaging all the others. Under Such circumstances Trump will likely win by a MUCH greater margin than in 2016. This is because the DNC by force-feeding such a candidate, would have eliminated any possibility of November 2020 being "a referendum on President Donald Trump" because they would have force fed basically a FREAK as the democratic Nominee. Instead Such and Election would effectively be decided on the Issue of "Freaks vs Non-Freaks" if the DNC continues on its current path. Last Time I Checked, there are A LOT more non-freaks than there are freaks. Ironically legions of outraged Millennials, Late-wave Xers, Northern Blacks, Hispanics and Asians (demographics that are normally decidedly Democrat leaning) would probably be what propels Trump to victory in 2020. And it would be fitting because the DNC would have brought the landslide defeat upon themselves.

As usual, You, Eric, Pbrower, Classic, Kinser and Warren Dew can all weigh in your thoughts on the above statement.

My only disagreement, I think the Southern blacks are more likely to jump ship and eventually join forces with the party of Lincoln these days. I do agree, the liberal Democrats who are bringing defeat upon themselves. The freaks vs non freaks sounds harsh but I get what you mean and basically agree with that too. I saw Buttigieg basically tell a Democratic woman that she and millions of others will have look/go else where if they're looking for promises and assurances from the Democratic party these days. I'm telling you, if those people ( I know those people) switch parties, the liberals can say goodbye to the American heartland.

I Think it would be Northern and western Blacks who switch for the most part. Remember that Minnesota's black communities demographic dynamics are atypical compared to the equivalent populations in most other states. Large Percentage of Minnesotas blacks are Muslim african immigrants mostly from the horn of Africa, this likely causes them to identify more with the pro-unchecked immigration policies of the DNC establishment. In most of the rest of the Midwest, as well as the Northeast, Mid-atlantic and western states (Florida and Texas blacks may be this category as well), Black voters are increasingly similar to non-elite white democrats. They Prefer economic reform like that proposed by Bernie, Tulsi, Yang and others as well as being increasingly swayed by president Trumps policies.

Blacks In the traditional south are still regarded by the DNC as the "establishment's firewall" they block-voted for Clinton in 2016. And Hillary pandered quite a bit to southern black voters in 2016. Bernie failed to make any headway there (he had quite a bit of success among blacks outside the south) Kamala tried to pander to them but failed miserably. Polls among their communities seem to place Biden and warren Ahead of the other candidates. Older voters also tend to have more influence there as well at least it appears so (probably due to gospel Church influence). These older Voters tend to block-vote for establishment democrats, and can be more easily scared into supporting establishment politics such as campaigning on identity politics. Although this is partially due to the legacy of the spoils system in the south but that is an entirely different subject altogether.

So, what happens when the spoils system can no longer be guaranteed to future generations of American blacks?

More likely the south's politics would increasingly resemble that of the rest of the country. Since about 1975 there was an unspoken "gentleman's agreement" Between DNC and RNC elites in which whole sections of the political sphere in some states were parceled out into exclusive provinces, This resulted in Racial Block Voting being the norm in some regions. That was the Status Quo Prior to the Rise of Trump and Sanders in the run up to 2016.

Most likely the establishment DNC would continue trying to ramp up pandering in order to keep Southern Blacks "in the fold". The Gradual Decline of the DNC hold on Blacks would occur nationwide, but it would likely occur quite a bit faster outside of the south where depending on whether the realignment simply shifts allegiances among the existing parties OR creates a 3-Party or even a 4-party system: Northern Blacks would either join non-elite democrats in forming a separate progressive party OR they could simply switch in ever larger numbers to the GOP. Most likely blacks would be a political swing constituency 30 years from now.

More likely the DNC would continue being completely aligned with Neoliberalism (they show no signs of acknowledging the populist mood of the people) and be a minority party of the elites w/immigrants and southern blacks for the time being. The Rest of the electorate would be aligned with a conservative populist GOP, probably joined by a third more leftish populist party consisting of the political descendants of the segments of the democrats who opposed Hillary's nomination in 2016 in the first place.