The Coronavirus

[Bob Butler 54]

The virus has two oft quoted numbers.  For each person who gets it, about two people are infected.  The problem is that this is a number clearly greater than one.  It means that everyone will eventually have to live in an infected environment.  

The other number is two percent of those infected die.

I have seen the Trump gang comparing one number or the other with prior outbreaks and declaring that we have seen compareable numbers before and will do well.  I think we have to multiply the two numbers together to fight this complacency.  Sure, there have been lots of diseases that are contagious, but not fatal, or fatal but don’t spread easily.  But if a bug is both, you have a problem.

Many parts of the world see a problem.  There is a sense that it will take a year or two to develop an effective, safe and mass producible vaccine.  It is generally seen as wise to slow the spread as much as possible during the one or two years until then.  There could be a big economic glitch involved in doing it.  One can see the Trump desire to minimize the virus, to minimize the thought of a glitch coming.  I do not see how he can hope to do it.  Instead he will only make things very visibly worse before the election.

I have been comparing it in my mind to the Great War’s flu.  Does anyone know the two numbers for that one, or other diseases where both numbers multiply to something similar?  I have read some old letters that came out in my genealogy research.  The family avoided fatalities with the 1918 flu, but the disruption was real.  How does the current problem compare to other pandemics such as the Black Death?

The contagious and fatality numbers are not commonly available.  Does anyone know where to look?

I am happily retired, well off, old enough to be in the heavily lethal age, and am thinking of a precautionary self quarantine.  I could minimize going out, and order groceries and other things online and delivered or sent by mail.  Amazon and Peapod, anyone?  I have already done quite a bit of this for other reasons.  Now seems the time for one last fling before shutdown.  

I am thinking of a new computer.  Should I have it shipped here rather that have the local Apple Store do a few mods?  My annual physical is about due at the local health care center.  Should I cancel?

Will such self quarantine become the new normal for a time?  Will this accelerate the death of brick and mortar businesses, and impact the restaurant and travel industries? Others?  Will it present a problem for Trump, enough to perhaps be considered the trigger event?  Will we see a change in the perceived need for big government, in being prepared for disasters, in the value of scientific thinking, in thinking of everybody rather than tribally?  How big a glitch should we be expecting?

Thoughts?  I thought it worth a thread.