Open By Easter

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more.  That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12).  He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.

New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures.  You heard it here first.  Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.

If they decline, we should remove the business closures.  At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen.  Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.

School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.

I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system.  On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity.  I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.

I suspect you err on the do little side.  Some states have not even begun the preventative isolations, let alone reached the peaks of infection and deaths.  Florida in particular is showing higher on the smart thermometer tests than New York and has no state wide isolation.  Missouri is not yet mandating isolation in spite of a record increase in caseload.  The way that states are not isolating until after things get out of hand means more hot spots developing.  I would rather delay the isolation end until we reach the nearly nothing stage, when the curves are clearly down, and when we have no shortage of stuff like ventilators, masks, gloves, tests, etc...

The reasons to reduce cases below the capacity of the health cares system are called people.  Those who value money more than people may have a different outlook.  Still, one could argue that a nation wide isolation and mandated making of supplies ahead of time along with distribution according to need would have only ended the problem earlier.  Continued half measures and no measures will only prolong the time when the economy is crippled.

I do think much thought should be given to restarting the economy while maintaining as much isolation as possible.  The managers in limbo that want to kick the economy going soonest should be thinking of how you can get work done with as much isolation as possible.  This need not go on forever, but might allow some restart sooner.

I have been watching MSNBC's admittedly blue biased reporting of the virus. Their reporting is much more in line with Cumo, of rolling hot spots, of problems showing first in the blue coastal port cities, then moving elsewhere. While they are definitely biased against Trump's Happy Talk - minimizing the problem, biased as much as possible towards keeping the economy going - what the coastal media say about and expanding problem and the state of the hospitals is backed by science and good reporting. If you are going to be on the Happy Talk rapid relaxation of isolation side of things, you might want to catch some blue leaning news reporting. Much of Trump's reality is lies and keeping his mind on the false reality.