When Did The "Crisis" Begin?

[Galen]

(04-01-2020, 04:02 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The next mismatch is that Trump used the Washington State University model for how many Coronavirus cases and deaths will occur.  The model assumes that the states or federal government folk who have not yet adopted isolation will do so in about a week.  Presenting the model without starting the isolation tends to make the model results invalid.

You would do well to remember that most people who get the Coronavirus never show symptoms.  In fact if we take recent data from Italy into account then it is pretty clear the older you are the greater your chances dying. In many respect this is behaving much like the flu does.  Even being at the upper limit of age for Generation X, I like my survival odds but if you are a Boomer your odds are much worse.  Keep in mind that because so many people are asymptomatic and there has been so little testing these mortality rates are an upper bound and the actual mortality rate is likely to be much lower.

Unless you know the underlying assumptions behind the model it is a good idea to take it with a block of salt.  Personally I think the media and governments have been hyping the dangers of this virus for their own purposes.