Open By Easter

[Eric the Green]

(03-31-2020, 01:19 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more.  That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12).  He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.

1. New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures.  You heard it here first.  Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.

2. If they decline, we should remove the business closures.  At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen.  Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.

3. School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.

4. I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system.  On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity.  I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.

1. Nope, ain't happening.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/0...h-28-2020/
Mid May perhaps, but not until then.

2. The US embraced Neoliberalism.  That means the US doesn't make very many masks or any other medical stuff like drugs here either. We'll have to wait for China to get back online and let them use said drugs on their population first.  IOW, US, get to the back of the line.

3. Children are notorious infection spreaders. So that's a stupid idea. Take it from a mumps carrier like me. When I was 5 , mom sorta thought I had the mumps and took me to the doc. Doc said no mumps, but in about 3 or 4 days all the kids in the neighborhood had them.

4. For now. New York now, rest of USA later. Covid-19 plays no politics or favorites. It just comes, like that comet from the East I told Eric about. I think a lot of things here in the US are going to break, bad.  

5. I'm even putting money where my mouth is. I'm expecting a nice big fat bear market. Oh the frauds that will be exposed, the ponzi fracking going bust finally, a bunch of fallen angel corporate bonds.  There's a lot of economic underbrush to clean up. Stuff like hedge funds, LBO doers, and derivative writers.  I'll be OK if the Fed chokes on a bunch of money losing bonds as well. It's bad for its owners you know.

I agree with Bob; not fast enough.

I don't think 100,000 people will die. But the pandemic is not ending 13-17 days after school closings. It's been 2 weeks already and cases are still accelerating. Lots of people were infected under the radar because we have no testing and no quarantines for those who test positive. Lots of people have already been tested and no results reported, so the number will also rise because of this. I agree with Rags; after messing with New York, the virus has fresh frontiers to conquer in Detroit, Chicago, New Orleans, Los Angeles, and then out to the red states who are neo-liberals with poor services. Pennsylvania, Florida and Georgia are getting hit hard and will get worse because they were slow to impose restrictions. Over half the states have over 1000 confirmed cases now. If recovering states want to lift restrictions, we may need a lot more agents to close state borders. China is our new model of a functioning state, like it or not, for the time being.

Neo-liberalism has indeed apparently hurt us. Do we even have the capacity to make the health instruments and Protective Equipment that we need? Certainly not under a neo-liberal president who is leaving action to the states and not requiring what factories we still have to go on a wartime footing and make the things we need.

Face masks may not work. Lots of health workers now deprived of enough masks can't change them after a day, and get sick. But if they can be infected in one day, they can be infected in one hour, or one minute.

I stick with my prediction, which is now coming true. Recession before the Jupiter-Saturn alignment on Dec. 21. That is happening. Recovery and renewal in the 2020s. 2008 was the worst of the century. But reality will continually prod us to change and reform.

I thought California was going to level off. But the cesspool that is LA has not yet reached its crisis peak. It has over 3 times as many cases as Santa Clara County now, which used to be the state leader in cases.

I don't speak acronymese. What is LBO??