04-01-2020, 03:58 PM
(03-31-2020, 01:19 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: 1. New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures. You heard it here first. Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.
2. If they decline, we should remove the business closures. At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen. Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.
3. School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.
4. I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system. On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity. I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.
1. Nope, ain't happening.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/0...h-28-2020/
Mid May perhaps, but not until then.
2. The US embraced Neoliberalism. That means the US doesn't make very many masks or any other medical stuff like drugs here either. We'll have to wait for China to get back online and let them use said drugs on their population first. IOW, US, get to the back of the line.
3. Children are notorious infection spreaders. So that's a stupid idea. Take it from a mumps carrier like me. When I was 5 , mom sorta thought I had the mumps and took me to the doc. Doc said no mumps, but in about 3 or 4 days all the kids in the neighborhood had them.
4. For now. New York now, rest of USA later. Covid-19 plays no politics or favorites. It just comes, like that comet from the East I told Eric about. I think a lot of things here in the US are going to break, bad.
5. I'm even putting money where my mouth is. I'm expecting a nice big fat bear market. Oh the frauds that will be exposed, the ponzi fracking going bust finally, a bunch of fallen angel corporate bonds. There's a lot of economic underbrush to clean up. Stuff like hedge funds, LBO doers, and derivative writers. I'll be OK if the Fed chokes on a bunch of money losing bonds as well. It's bad for its owners you know.
1. New cases in my state of Massachusetts appear to have peaked on Saturday, and have declined since. Nationally, new cases clearly departed downward from the previous exponential growth, also on Saturday or so, though they are not declining due to poor management in New York City and possibly other cases.
2. We don't need medical masks. Homemade masks are fine. Also, you can order Chinese masks on Amazon now, suitable for street use if not for medical use.
3. Children are notorious infection spreaders - absolutely. That's why school closures are needed, to cut down on massive infections through kids. I know that since schools were closed in my city, we went from having 3-4 people with colds at any given time to 0.
4. Massachusetts peaked; New York is clearly not peaking. Mismanagement can make things worse, as in New York and Italy; good management can help minimize the problems, like South Korea and Massachusetts.
5. The market was due for a correction anyway. I wouldn't bet on a crash yet, though the bailout bill makes things a lot worse.