04-02-2020, 09:20 AM
(03-26-2020, 04:57 PM)Ghost Wrote: *Turning 18 on November 8, 2016 (Trump v. Hillary election) may end up being similar to turning 18 on August 24, 1995 (Windows 95 release) from a historical generational standpoint.
*The Homelanders term may completely replace the Generation Z term, resulting in people born in 1997-2002 eventually becoming Millennials.
*9/11 until the 2008 crash may be viewed as the "gray area" between 3T and 4T.
*The coronavirus scare will be viewed as the "peak of the Fourth Turning".
You over-rate the importance of the release of Windows 95. It is not in the same league as the introduction of the mechanical reaper (which made farming so productive that multitudes could give up farm labor for something else), motion pictures that vastly changed the nature of entertainment, gramophones that allowed the storage of sound as books could store words, the electric light that extended day into the night, the automobile that supplanted the horse, radio and later television (broadcast television is really a form of radio) that created mass audiences for live entertainment, and rockets that put people into orbit... and especially satellites useful for all sorts of purposes. Don't forget the Internet itself.
There are operating systems (including Linux) that developed independently of Windows. We are doing with computer software, quite frankly, mostly what we did before. OK, more people can create videos and we have far more choices.
The time from 9/11 to the Crash of 2008 isn't a "gray area"; it is clearly the latter, and so far invariably insidious, stage of of the 3T that leads into a Crisis Era for which few are prepared. I have suggested the term "Degeneracy" for a time of mindless hedonism, intensification of inequality, conservative trends in politics, social and economic corruption, and a steady stream of destructive failures. The conservatism is not so much a defense of benign tradition as it is an endorsement of the entrenchment of power among irresponsible elites. It ordinarily ends with the worst panic of the era as a speculative frenzy implodes. The frenzy is creating paper profits while gutting investment in plant and equipment that would augment productivity and create jobs. We had a crash in real estate that took the stock market with it in 2008 (there was no huge frenzy in stock speculation); this time the frenzy in buying securities has come to an end (don't fool yourself; the long Obama-Trump boom is over) and if the falling knife continues we will find a market collapse taking real estate values with it. Two big crashes? That can happen.
OK -- the big one: COVID-19 threatens to kill Americans on the scale of wartime losses of an extended war (on the low end I would say either the Korean or Vietnam War; at the high end American combat and prisoner deaths in WWII, or even the Civil War if we really bungle things) in a short time. Americans are doing things generally contrary to normal just to avoid the sort of death (respiratory diseases) that we thought no longer happened in advanced societies except among people dying of other causes. We have shut down schools, libraries, museums, restaurants, casinos, and houses of worship. We are leery of meeting strangers as never before. All of this is contrary to our gregariousness, materialism, curiosity, greed, and hedonism. We are living miserably so that we can enjoy life again instead of dying pointless, unheroic deaths.
It is different from combat in that the people dying in big numbers are not young men in battle. Deaths are happening in all age groups, but particularly (so far) the elderly. We could see huge economic disruptions if COVID-19 ravages certain occupational groups. I first noticed the "frequent flier" category that includes a wide array of well-off professionals who do the bulk of travel for commercial, cultural, or administrative purposes -- business executives, politicians, academics, entertainers, physicians, attorneys, engineers, politicians... it is easy to understand such if one sees the airliner interior as an excellent means of spreading bacteria or viruses through the ventilation system. It could just as easily spread on school buses or on any form of mass transit. Should the death toll be high enough, then we could see great devaluation in real estate. Recent years have been the landlord's dream with the highest residential rents in American history -- nominal and real. If that comes to an end, then we have some changes.
I can imagine mass death bringing about a halt in residential and commercial construction. Unlike a war, COVID-19 kills people but without destroying real and personal property. Lots of stuff that deceased victims had as possessions (from antiques to motor vehicles) would create a glut on the market for such things. For survivors, mass death (ignoring the loss of loved ones) could mean higher pay and lower rents, and even shorter commutes. On the other hand, construction jobs that sop up huge numbers of workers of limited education could disappear. There would be shorter lines and lower ticket prices at amusement parks and other attractions. Fuel consumption will fall and so will fuel prices.
Even global warming will abate some.
COVID-19 -- warfare-scale tragedy in effect, but with no heroic stories in the aftermath.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.