When Did The "Crisis" Begin?

[David Horn]

(04-01-2020, 02:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Unlike Galen I think the mortality rate is much higher than even the experts say. Those who are asymptomatic and/or untested may also get sick and die. So far, looking at the actual stats,

closed cases:
239,413
Cases which had an outcome:

193,350 (81%)
Recovered / Discharged

46,063 (19%)
Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

among those cases that had an outcome, 19% died. The rest are still sick or have not been tested or their test results are not revealed yet, but are and have been added to the list of cases as the results come in. That looks to me like a 19% death rate, and that % has been increasing.

There is a built-in error to these data: most illnesses that didn't require hospitalization weren't counted.  There's a well established illness pattern based on degree of exposure.  If you are exposed lightly but enough to trigger an immune response, you may never get sick, but be immune nonetheless. As the degree of exposure rises, so does the seriousness of illnesses and the mortality rate.  So riding the subway to work everyday in crowded conditions means the number and degree of illnesses will be high -- mortality as well.  Walking past an infected person once may not even trigger a response.