When Did The "Crisis" Begin?

[Eric the Green]

(04-02-2020, 11:43 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-01-2020, 02:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Unlike Galen I think the mortality rate is much higher than even the experts say. Those who are asymptomatic and/or untested may also get sick and die. So far, looking at the actual stats,

closed cases:
239,413
Cases which had an outcome:

193,350 (81%)
Recovered / Discharged

46,063 (19%)
Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

among those cases that had an outcome, 19% died. The rest are still sick or have not been tested or their test results are not revealed yet, but are and have been added to the list of cases as the results come in. That looks to me like a 19% death rate, and that % has been increasing.

There is a built-in error to these data: most illnesses that didn't require hospitalization weren't counted.  There's a well established illness pattern based on degree of exposure.  If you are exposed lightly but enough to trigger an immune response, you may never get sick, but be immune nonetheless. As the degree of exposure rises, so does the seriousness of illnesses and the mortality rate.  So riding the subway to work everyday in crowded conditions means the number and degree of illnesses will be high -- mortality as well.  Walking past an infected person once may not even trigger a response.

From what I can gather from the reports, the cases include those not hospitalized. But it does not count those who have not been tested, or those tested but whose results are not reported yet. Of these we have no idea whether death may or may not result. As tests are reported, positive tests are added to the number of cases reported, and that has been going on since the beginning. Of the 800,000 or so cases which have not had an outcome yet, they could have an outcome anytime, and the trend among those who then have an outcome, the trend toward death is increasing, not decreasing. So the 20% figure seems much more accurate than the 2% or 1% which the experts say.

It's possible that the death trend could decrease, since deaths seem to come sooner than recoveries. But I don't know that that is the case.