Open By Easter

[pbrower2a]

(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more.  That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12).  He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.

New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures.  You heard it here first.  Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.

Not happening. 



As of April 2 the USA was on the fastest curve upward with only slight mitigation of the trajectory. You might notice that China and South Korea show proportionally few new cases because their curves have flattened. Don't trust sources of the PRC? There is South Korea, which has  functioning democracy with a free press and a government capable of swift, decisive action even at the expense of economic discomfort. 

The scale shown on the graph is semi-logarithmic, which means that as cases double every three days we will go to about a million in nine or ten days, ten million in twenty, a hundred million in thirty, and 300 million in about thirty-five days. That is roughly the maximum of spread of the disease for reasons that should be obvious.

The damage to American business is obvious enough with shutdowns -- but imagine what life is like here if twenty million people are infected. Our people become pariahs of the world. Our airlines are unable to take people to other countries because one of the passengers is the Angel of Death unwelcome everywhere. This character needs no passport or visa. We find it difficult to sell stuff on the foreign market, and people overseas are chary of making deals in America to sell us stuff. 

Quote:If they decline, we should remove the business closures.  At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen.  Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.

I would be willing to wear a face mask while watching a feature film or theater play, attending a concert or sporting event, or visiting a museum. It is difficult of course to eat or drink while wearing a face mask. That is trouble for movie theaters that break even on the flick and make their profit off the popcorn, candy, and sodas. 

Quote:School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.

Social distancing is impossible in a jetliner, city bus,  theater, concert hall, nightclub, casino, dance hall, or place of worship. We will get better at it. 

Yesterday I was in Wal*Mart and someone got closer to me than six feet while we were in line. I politely reminded me (he seemed mentally retarded) to keep his difference, which is marked off toward the checkout. We are getting better at it.    

Quote:I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system.  On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity.  I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.

It will take longer than you now think. Note well that we will start to find ways of doing things that we used to enjoy doing --ways to not spread the COVID-19 plague. I suspect that the Sunday drive, hike, or bicycle ride will comeback into vogue. If we want the food that a restaurant cooks, we need to pick it up ourselves or have it delivered. If there are no picnic tables available we will need to eat in the car should we travel (which is messy). Maybe we will need appointments to use some popular state and national parks -- and swimming holes. AND -- because this plague is likely to either remain or rebound -- ski lifts for the 2020-2021 season.

The 2020 Olympic games have been rescheduled for 2021. That should tell you something.