04-06-2020, 01:03 PM
(04-06-2020, 12:40 PM)Snowflake1996 Wrote:(04-06-2020, 11:42 AM)Isoko Wrote: Also in regards to turnings, I think that maybe we have just entered a 4T right now. Obviously there is the traditional view that the 4T started in 2008 or even 2001 but in my eyes, a 4T is a period of time when lots of stuff happens and normality cannot be resumed until after the crisis.
This is not so with either 2001 or 2008. Life went on. There was no major disruptions to life. None whatsoever. The coronavirus pandemic is the first major disruption to life, at least on a global scale, since world war 2.
Once you have that key event, everything starts to collapse pretty quickly and in the end things need to be rebuilt a new for a true recovery to take place.
With this event, expect new events to add onto this existing one, making a true 4T time period to live in. My estimation is that for the West, the next 1T should be about the 2030 - 2040 phase. Depends once again where you live.
If 2019/2020 is the start of the 4T for the reasons you listed then that could indicate that Strauss and Howe have underestimated the effect that both longevity and the increasing ratio of old:young people have had on lengthening the saeculum. The normal saeculum for the American cycle has been 80-84 years but a 4T starting in 2019 would indicate that this new one will expand to 90 years or more. Personally I’m on the fence with this. We likely won’t get a clear picture until the mid 2030’s or later.
Yes I seem to be the mindset that Strauss and Howe got the timing wrong due to extended life spans but also the system in place was able to withstand more pressure this time around until recently. Plus with WMDs, there never was a mad dash to a major war.
Looking back at the past, I would say that a generational shift has occurred at a more slower pace compared to the past.
So for example:
Generation X is more of a 2T generation. They came of age during the 1990s which is regarded as a second 1960s. They fought in Afghanistan and Iraq which was the equivalent of Vietnam. They pushed for legalisation of cannabis, same sex marriage and other major social changes. I'd say they are equivalent to the boomers in many ways.
The Millennials are a 3T generation of Nomads. They grew up in an unraveling that should have led to a major crisis but never quite did. They got behind movements like the Alt Right and Anti fascist groups. They mainly live in their parents basements, start families later and are now starting to age. If there ever was a nomadic generation of our times, it would be the Millennials. They do not at all fit a typical 4T.
Then you have the Zoomers who have come of age during the era of Brexit and Trump along with this crisis. It'll be this generation that takes to the streets in Europe, in America. It'll be this generation that tackles the crisis head on. If there is a major conflict, they will fight it. If there is a collapse and major rebuilding to be done, it'll be the Zoomers.
Of course it would have been the Millennials had the crisis actually occurred on their watch but it never did and instead the slow decline just continued.