COVID-19 is the climax to this 4T

[Ghost]

(04-06-2020, 12:40 PM)Snowflake1996 Wrote:

(04-06-2020, 11:42 AM)Isoko Wrote: Also in regards to turnings, I think that maybe we have just entered a 4T right now. Obviously there is the traditional view that the 4T started in 2008 or even 2001 but in my eyes, a 4T is a period of time when lots of stuff happens and normality cannot be resumed until after the crisis.

This is not so with either 2001 or 2008. Life went on. There was no major disruptions to life. None whatsoever. The coronavirus pandemic is the first major disruption to life, at least on a global scale, since world war 2.

Once you have that key event, everything starts to collapse pretty quickly and in the end things need to be rebuilt a new for a true recovery to take place.

With this event, expect new events to add onto this existing one, making a true 4T time period to live in. My estimation is that for the West, the next 1T should be about the 2030 - 2040 phase. Depends once again where you live.

If 2019/2020 is the start of the 4T for the reasons you listed then that could indicate that Strauss and Howe have underestimated the effect that both longevity and the increasing ratio of old:young people have had on lengthening the saeculum. The normal saeculum for the American cycle has been 80-84 years but a 4T starting in 2019 would indicate that this new one will expand to 90 years or more. Personally I’m on the fence with this. We likely won’t get a clear picture until the mid 2030’s or later.

It's most likely closer to 80-90 (Strauss and Howe have said 80, 88, and 90 I believe), with 84 being the average.