04-09-2020, 06:24 AM
(04-07-2020, 06:17 PM)freivolk Wrote:(04-06-2020, 11:42 AM)Isoko Wrote: Also in regards to turnings, I think that maybe we have just entered a 4T right now. Obviously there is the traditional view that the 4T started in 2008 or even 2001 but in my eyes, a 4T is a period of time when lots of stuff happens and normality cannot be resumed until after the crisis.
This is not so with either 2001 or 2008. Life went on. There was no major disruptions to life. None whatsoever. The coronavirus pandemic is the first major disruption to life, at least on a global scale, since world war 2.
Once you have that key event, everything starts to collapse pretty quickly and in the end things need to be rebuilt a new for a true recovery to take place.
With this event, expect new events to add onto this existing one, making a true 4T time period to live in. My estimation is that for the West, the next 1T should be about the 2030 - 2040 phase. Depends once again where you live.
(04-07-2020, 04:33 AM)Isoko Wrote: Hi Warren,
I have to disagree with this statement. First, the great depression did trigger events in the world that helped page the way for the climax. It led to the Italian invasion of Abbysina, the Japanese occupation of Manchukuo, the rise of Hitler and the subsequent occupation of the Rhineland. The Great Depression did trigger a lot of events in a short order. So in that case, yes, the 4T did start in 1929.
However in 2008, you say it was survival? I remember that period quite well. There was a shortage of jobs but due to the immense government bailouts, there was no crash. People just got on with their lives. People still got jobs, they still bought houses, there was plenty of food on the shelves, etc. The only major decline in economic living was a result of globalisation and neo liberalism but not actually 2008.
The events that followed really felt like more of a 3T. However, I still stand by that Corona virus is the beginning of this 4T. Like with 1929, expect events to open up now in short succession rather then a slow line that what transpired from 2008.
My family in the UK tell me how difficult it is to buy food. That is 4T tier. Italy wants to leave in the EU and is in a huge crisis. That is 4T tier. Russia is giving aid to the United States. That is 4T tier. Compared to 2008, 1Twe really are entering the 4T.
Actually a lot of things happend after 2008, that shows the world is in a crisis. Eurocrisis, Arab Spring, syriian ciivil war, annexation of Crimea, refugee crisis, Brexit, Trump iitself, the Cold Saudi-Iran war
Everywhere on the World populist strongmen pop up The international institutions of the 1T crumble, in Europe the 1T party systems disolves. We see hate and irrationality grows in all societys and there is no venttil for this, because a big crisis war is impossible and the people in charge did everthing to prevent a second Great Depression. But now the Virus iss there, and he may cause the climaax of the crisis, because he gives society aan enemy and may bee force the people to chose between the strongmen and the old, boring 1T democracy..
Actually these are mainly 3T events with the exception of the wars. My reasoning behind 4Ts is that they become very hard for governments to control and average daily life of people is disrupted. The more powerless a government or institution is, the more the people turn to more radical alternatives.
All of the events you described could have led to a 4T but instead they were controlled and people's daily lives continues on as normal, albeit a slow decline in living standards. Not exactly crisis standards but perfect for an unraveling.
You mention the populists taking power but they haven't really as of yet. Brexit and Trump were basically protest elections but the actual system of government has remained the same aside from some flavourings. The main places to look for a true Populist movement taking power would be in Europe and so far no party has been able to do it. Mainly just increased seats and coalition governments where there power has been effectively muted.
However Corona virus and the coming world depression is going to alter politics in a huge way that you can no longer just kick the can down the road.
My predictions is that this isn't a climax but the start of the 4T. What we will see is the following:
The emergence of new powers taking the scene of global power, namely Russia and China, perhaps India down the line, and the final end of western hegemony for the current time period.
The actual election and installation of power of populist parties in Europe, where they have real power. Expect with this strong action to problems, maybe even semi dictatorships forming. However expect most of these to be on the Salazar model and not the Hitler model. This will cause the collapse of the EU and remoulding European countries into a new centre of power.
The coming isolation of America.
These are the big three trends I forsee. Now any events could escalate but this is going to be the foreseeable trend.
My prediction also is that the fireworks will settle down and a new economic model will come about in one or two decades.