04-12-2020, 12:32 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-12-2020, 12:53 PM by Generational.)
(03-22-2020, 12:43 PM)Drakus79 Wrote: I decided to check back here, since it seems pretty obvious that this pandemic crisis is the climax of this 4T and I'm surprised there hasn't been a thread on this already (although I may have missed it). Nevertheless, here are my thoughts.Hi Drakus et al.,
...
Thanks for opening this thread which I thought was also "obvious" but will be missed by most people. Even ardent followers of the generational theory will by now be so tired and frustrated by our current 4t that they miss the climax while it stares them in the face. Regarding the intensity - I think there is a general trend towards less intense and deadly 4ts. As a percentage of population loss from the Wars of the Roses to WW2 and now COVID - it's less and less, thanks Goodness! I am impressed by Strauss/Howe foresight when they state that "governments will decide winners and losers and no-one has a choice". This applies to who's job will be shut down right now vs. who still makes money. There are breadlines of 4+ miles in Las Vegas right now (albeit in cars to maintain social distancing and even the financially dead of our 4t are much better off than those of the Great Depression - not to minimize anyone's suffering which is VERY real).
Regarding consequences we seem to agree. The one country I look to as a harbinger is Russia. The October Revolution 1917 foreshadowed the trend to social-democrat / socialist policies like the New Deal 16 years later across the globe. It also foreshadowed the rise of extreme autocratic, aggressive and anti-human regimes across the globe in the 1930s. The Red Mass Terror was a glimpse to come for Jews, Chinese, Ethiopians and many more. The National Socialist regime in Germany became the epitomy of this trend.
In our present cycle Putin came to power around 2000, again 15ish years before we see leaders from the traditionalist, nationalist and populist spectrum arise to power across the globe. Once again, no Western country will become a quasi-dictatorship, but sooner or later they all become traditionalist, populist and nationalist. Some sooner, some later. This is indeed the end of globalism. I have noticed a lot of underlying trends confirming this that the media ignores whether on purpose or not. Conservative-Christian families still have 3.5 children per family and the fall in the birthrate is mostly due to liberal families. Political attitudes are largely genetic so liberal globalist elitist attitudes fall out of the gene pool. If you rank all US counties by birth rate top to bottom then Trump one all the upper ones and Hillary all the lower ones. The future is traditionalist, populist and nationalist.
Finally, the three defining secular movements in the last Turnings are: fascism, socialism and classical liberalism. They dominated societies in the last 200 years. Everyone vying for power had to position himself between those three. The last 4t required a total war (WW2) to defeat fascism. In the last 3t Socialism collapsed more by itself following a lengthy cold war. Currently, it's liberalism's turn to die and it just requires a Cultural War to accomplish this. Less intensity each time. After this, it's a brave new world of traditionalism, populism and nationalism waiting for us and generations to come.