COVID-19 is the climax to this 4T

[beechnut79]

(04-13-2020, 01:11 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(04-12-2020, 06:50 PM)Generational Wrote:

(04-12-2020, 05:55 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(04-12-2020, 04:49 PM)Generational Wrote:

(04-12-2020, 04:06 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:          

Classical liberalism has become a cover for pure plutocracy; a few people get to live like sultans, and most of the rest are obliged to endure grinding poverty yet praise its cruelty as benefice. Modern technologies, including those that allow a high level of productivity, alone make it obsolete. 

I see another force of the last few decades: religious fundamentalism. Before one ascribes this strictly to Islam, one need remember that America has plenty of people would like to transform America into a Christian version of Iran.  Women would of course submit to men, abortion would be outlawed; schools would promote young-earth creationism as historical and scientific truth; religious authorities would wax rich while getting away with incredible corruption. (Iran is one of the most corrupt societies on Earth, the regime-connected ayatollahs getting rich by confiscating property of dissidents who want to leave Iran).

Super-correct on our current globalism being a plutocracy. Hence, you get the populist revolts among the electorates. Interestingly, the left-leaning parties are now in favor of plutocracy, globalism, elitism, whereas right-leaning parties embrace the populism to end the globalist-elitist system. Btw Islamic Terrorism (largely sponsored by Iran) is the Muslim version of globalism - one size of religion and lifestyle to be imposed on all. The other two versions are the Western-liberalist and the Chinese-economic ("belt and road") globalism.

Towards the 1T we can expect conservative religious views to dominate. The roles of men and women will separate mightily from where they are now - women nurture and men earn (acc. to the book). Women will stay at home and raise (many) children, men will earn the dough. You mentioned Hungary - it's a model for this. Around 2010 the birthrate in Hungary was 1.1 and it had significant emigration on top. Ten years into nationalist populist government, the birthrate is at 1.6, marriages are up 43%, divorces down 23% and abortions almost eliminated. Hungary now is a net-immigration country attractive for all Westerners (they refuse refugees as we know). Seriously, if ever there was a successful turnaround this is the poster child. The policies massively favor traditional marriage and childbirth. For example, you are exempt from income tax for life by child #4 (as working or middle class). How about that…

You are young, Generational? A new poster, and new to the world? Welcome. I agree with fellow boomer Brower though. The right remains the upholder of both plutocracy, and the social conservatism you appear to favor. No, both will decline in the next decade. Most younger people can see through the veil. Trump is an oligarchist, not a populist, and so are Bolsonaro, LeFey, Johnson, Morrison, Deterte, Steve Bannon, and all the other Trump clones. Phony populists supporting "classical liberalism" (now known as neo-liberalism), and putting it on steroids. Trump may be correct on one issue, being against the libertarian trade policies, although he carries it out poorly in every way, but you can't elevate that one issue into an entire populist program. The rest of it is pure Reagan-Bush-Thatcher, and pure Hayek, Mises, Friedman and Rand. Tax cuts for the rich, and gutting the administrative state that protects us from the oligarchs and their exploitation and abuse of workers, consumers, the environment and the economic system.

The corona virus is bringing back what is needed, the administrative state and quasi-socialism, at least for a little while, and I hope it's permanent, and that it expands. We need to rein in the oligarchs and depose Reaganomics and social conservatism forever. That way, we may be able to arrive at a proper balance, a mixed state of smaller capitalism, socialism, tradition, and freedom.

I wish I was younger   but we may disagree on this - the future looks to me socially conservative and fiscally liberal 
I see us moving away from socialism towards populism, away from fascism towards nationalism and away from classical liberalism including the current form of globalist-elitism PC-ism to traditionalism. The last of the three moves may be perceived as the biggest difference. This is either withheld in the media or demonized, but nothing can stop it. Btw this is nothing but Strauss/Howe orthodoxy and how they describe the social mood in a 1T. If you postulate anything different you do not follow the generational theory. Not a problem, but it's not Strauss/Howe generational theory of history then. Plus, it stares you right into the eyes in the many and growing examples you mentioned.

"socially conservative and fiscally liberal" That would be the opposite of the last 40 years.

Populism is a mild form of socialism. It is power to the people. That's what populist means. The population. That means liberal. It means taking power from elites and giving it to the people. The elite in the USA is big business; the oligarchy; the 1%. Just as it was back in 1892 when populism began. There's little change in this.

Populism is NOT a politics dictated by peoples' fears and prejudices. Nor is it a politics that is popular. Those are not the original definition, but is one that is bruted about these days. I prefer the original definition. Power to the people, not the elites.

Fascism is nationalism. (Warren is correct, the latter is a broader category)

Now, there's a distinction between nationalism, and the idea or policy that we need national borders. Most people accept the need for borders, just to keep things level, more or less, within them, because conditions differ in the world, and not to be overwhelmed by hordes trying to cross them without proper inspection or rationale.

The other nationalism has to do with keeping other people out, with asserting that my nation is exceptional, that my nation deserves to dominate others (as 20th century fascism did), that my nation should be more powerful than other nations, that there is such a thing as a national race, religion, culture or language that ought to be uniform within the nation; that sort of thing. This is what liberals and progressives oppose, and most people oppose most of this too. No, this is outdated, and will decline further. We are one world, one humanity, and people of all races, religions and backgrounds are everywhere, and this trend cannot be stopped.

A first turning, which will begin more or less a decade from now, will seek stability and normality, but it will also consolidate much of the change accomplished in the 4T, which is always a progressive change. Nevertheless, there is a trend toward a reaction and some instability and xenophobia early in the recovery period, like under the Articles of Confederation, or the alien and sedition acts (depending on what your dating is), and the rise of the KKK and Jim Crow after the civil war, and McCarthyism in the 1950s. But, the constitution lasted, the vote was extended over time, slavery was not reinstated, and the new deal became the fair deal and the new frontier and great society after the permanent defeat of fascism. Consolidation of 4T victories.

The victories will be won, is my prediction. Inequality under Reagan/Bush/Trump will be reversed. Gay rights and legal marijuana will not be repealed, and abortion will stay legal. Climate change will begin to be handled and decreased. Gerrymandering and vote suppression will be removed. Democracy will be restored and money will be restricted in politics. Health care will be made available to all. Immigration reform will be adopted, and racism will no longer be in vogue or tolerated. These are some of the victories we can expect in the next 10 years of this 4T. I expect them to be consolidated in the 1T, despite a climate starting in 2030 that is not so favorable to further changes or reforms-- at least until the 2T gets going. Then we can expect fulfillment of the sixties.

I expect, after I have laid out all this truth and fact, that you will understand and accept it unhesitatingly.

I am wrong about that, I am sure

But what can I do? I am in the habit of making the case.

One of the things I would like to see accomplished before the 4T is out is workplace reform; more specifically to move from a strict at-will employment model to one where the employer needs a just cause to fire somebody. And to remove much of the secrecy from the process. Even though we have always technically been at-will unless you had a union or something similar, I do believe that in the postwar prosperity period you usually had to do something pretty awful before you would get fired.  And very few employers at the time I started in the workforce ran background checks; now they nearly all do.  Might we, thanks to the current pandemic, return to a time when many employers will feel it’s just too expensive to do unless it’s something requiring high levels of security. What changed in the intervening years that nearly all employers felt the need to background everybody?  One of the food delivery outfits is rumored to now be deactivating (their lingo for firing) drivers who have things on their report from many years ago even without further offenses. Seems ludicrous to me.  Do you feel we might see, among other things, a bill of rights for gig workers even though they are not really employees?  Have pointed out that in their mind any less than a five star rating might as well be zero?  How much reform in this area do you feel we might see in the coming years, and what might we be able to do to speed up the game?