(04-18-2020, 09:12 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: I find the following scenario most likely:
The nationalist-populists will win the 4T in America, the UK and most of the continent. They will be backed by poorer, less educated people, while the more educated will retreat into their ivory towers after the Left fails to win elections. I think politics will calm down in the late 2020s because the Left loses its motivation. There might be islands of Inclusivism, like the Scandinavian countries, and possibly Scotland or California if they manage to become independent. Anyway, this will be a failed 1T because it won't be supported by the best hearts and minds of societies. Thus the 2T will be a "civic awakening". It will focus on political freedom and global citizenship, rather than on religion, art or free love.
I think the most likely scenario is that both the nationalists/populists and fringe left will be called out by "normies".
"Normies", I believe, are the ones who would win. I can't imagine people like Richard Spencer or Anita Sarkeesian winning 4T because that would really just escalate (as they are won by dangerous people) the 4T and lengthen it. The former wants ethnostates and hardcore traditionalism (women having a lot of children, anti-LGBT, anti-interracial marriage, "trad Catholics" and "Odalists", etc) while the latter wants militant left-wing ideas (extreme socialism, communism, militant feminism, etc).
If either of them win, the world will be screwed big time by authoritarian ideas.
I really think it's more of an authoritarian vs. libertarian thing.