04-21-2020, 04:53 AM
Warren,
You have some very good points to be made. Crisis wars do come from the uncertain. Right now it is the U.S that is in a crisis period and they could do something very irrational like what we saw with Soleimani earlier this year. However, the other BRIC countries are in a period of economic growth and prosperity so they will be more willing to keep the peace this time around. If say the U.S did nuke North Korea for example, they would probably go and sanction the U.S, not start a war over North Korea.
As for 80 years of generations, I think and this is only my opinion that it changes with the times. There will always four turnings but due to the nature of change, things are not quite as clear cut as they were say in the 20th century. Remember that the traditional 4Ts did not even exist in 80 year cycles in the Roman Empire or middle ages as time was a very slow moving concept. You could have 100 years that remained predominantly one turning phase.
So once again, it depends on the times. I think a lot of Strauss and Howe theory was built on a 20th century period that has truths but it is up to us to try and find a meaning in it for the 21st century. We cannot blindly say this or that will happen with utmost confidence.
You have some very good points to be made. Crisis wars do come from the uncertain. Right now it is the U.S that is in a crisis period and they could do something very irrational like what we saw with Soleimani earlier this year. However, the other BRIC countries are in a period of economic growth and prosperity so they will be more willing to keep the peace this time around. If say the U.S did nuke North Korea for example, they would probably go and sanction the U.S, not start a war over North Korea.
As for 80 years of generations, I think and this is only my opinion that it changes with the times. There will always four turnings but due to the nature of change, things are not quite as clear cut as they were say in the 20th century. Remember that the traditional 4Ts did not even exist in 80 year cycles in the Roman Empire or middle ages as time was a very slow moving concept. You could have 100 years that remained predominantly one turning phase.
So once again, it depends on the times. I think a lot of Strauss and Howe theory was built on a 20th century period that has truths but it is up to us to try and find a meaning in it for the 21st century. We cannot blindly say this or that will happen with utmost confidence.