The Coronavirus

[Eric the Green]

(04-27-2020, 01:37 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-27-2020, 01:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: California is doing better than other large urban states where the virus first struck. It was the first state to institute a shelter-in-place order. Notice the cases and deaths per 1M people in CA. Rural states, where people are more spread apart, are not having as many cases, and parts of California also benefit from this. But Georgia is vulnerable, and has an irresponsible Republican governor who was not fairly-elected. Washington, which at first had the second-most cases of any state, now ranks 16th.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

click on "yesterday" to see an accurate total up to a single time.

There's actually a correlation between earlier lockdowns and higher peak death rates.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdown...1587930911

It's too weak a correlation to really support the idea that late lockdowns are better, but it definitely doesn't support the idea that early lockdowns - or lockdowns at all - are better.

In contrast, there was a strong enough correlation between population density and peak death rates to confirm the idea that high population density is bad.  California does not have an especially high population density, though.

We'll see what actually happens in Georgia in a couple weeks.

I don't really want to subscribe to the Wall St. Journal, but I would think the cases of Washington and California show that earlier shelter in place orders were effective. I have heard of other reports that confirm this (but I admit, I can't find them in a google search now). Louisiana was hit hard, but its rate and relative rank is declining due to its large amount of testing. All this can be seen in the worldometer stats. The California Metros are fairly dense places, though not as dense as New York City. San Francisco is certainly dense, and San Jose is becoming more dense. The difference between the rate of cases and deaths is certainly stark between California, by far the most populous state, and the other big urban states.