The Coronavirus

[David Horn]

(04-27-2020, 11:45 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-27-2020, 11:26 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: There ought to be some ground between business as used to be usual and shutting it all down.  We may be spending too much effort on one or the other impossible extreme, and not enough on trying to find a middle ground.

So now you're the one valuing green more than grandma.

It's a false dichotomy.  We don't have to look for middle ground.  The statistics say that shutdowns don't do anything.

However, something does do something, something other than shutdowns, as is obvious from how much better the Pacific Rim has done than Europe or the US.  We should be looking for what actually works, instead of taking the Puritan approach of falsely assuming that if it hurts, it must work.

I'd suggest two things.  One is voluntary physical distancing, which the people are doing even in states that had no shut downs.  The second is universal use of masks, which the Pacific Rim did from the start, and in the US is heavily resisted.  Things that offer high effectiveness at low cost.

It's obvious that moving expeditiously and effectively are the most important factors.  Australia and New Zealand used shutdowns, testing and contact tracing, and they are done, for all practical purposes.  Sweden is relying on commonsense and a great social and health safety net, with testing and contact tracing, but no shutdown or even social distancing.  We started late and are suffering for it, and that's equally true of Europe.  Singapore started early, quit early and is now back to tightening. Five years from now, we'll know what actually worked best. Obviously, the US in not in the running, though Washington State seems to have been a standout.