05-04-2020, 09:21 PM
(11-09-2019, 06:17 PM)Isoko Wrote: Hi guys,
I'm a British guy who lives in Russia and I thought I'd share some thoughts on what is happening here and in Europe.
From a generational perspective over here in Russia, I would say this country is in the midst of a 2T. Right now there is at least four generational divides and I think it beats anything even Strauss and Howe could come up with.
To start with we have the 50+ crowd which is nostalgic for the USSR and actually regret it's demise. Very nice people and true believers in the internationale, that is everyone on the earth is a comrade. They were taught mainly friendship of the nations and stick to it.
Then you have the 35+ crowd who remember the collapse of the Soviet Union and the 1998 financial crisis. They seem to be sympathetic to Putinism and would prefer a stronger Russia. Good people but they do feel that America is being threatening to Russia and don't like it.
Then you have the 20+ crowd and they are the group that is the most anti putin. They have a very naive view of the West, thinking it to be a great paradise and that Russia must become like the West in order to succeed. However most of them are still more socially Conservative then Western millennials and would prefer not to have open borders or gay marriage. They don't like Putinism though and feel it alienates Russia.
Then you have the children and they are the next patriotic generation, to put it mildly. They believe that Russia is going to be a great country and feel very patriotic to the motherland.
So my own assessment about Russia is that the older generation who still like Communism have no say anymore and usually stick with the status quo or vote for the Commies.
The 35ers tend to be more pragmatic. They support Putinism to an extent but would prefer to have better relations with the West.
The 20s want a new Russia altogether. They remember as kids the hard 90s and want freedom, democracy, the usual. That said not all of them do and some of them think the west is a crazy basket case. I do know that when Angela Merkel let in all those refugees, the Russian youth thought she had gone mad. So I wouldn't say its a left wing Liberal movement but more a weird sort of centrism.
The kids are I think a future right wing generation who will embrace some form of putinism although not be hostile to the West. Just a sort of our country is great now let's do business.
Anyway overall the attitudes of Russians is friendly to Europe, dislike of America (for obvious reasons) and that is in general about it. Whatever happens though, I think that Putin has left a very big mark on this nation and the future of Russian politics will have some basis for the decisions he has made. If I was to compare him to someone, I'd say St. Olga of Kiev. She laid down the foundations of orthodox christianity in a Russia but it was her grandson that fully converted the nation, not her son. Putin is sort of like that. He's planted the seeds of this Russian revival and whilst the young generation want changes, the desire I think for Russia to be a great power will remain. If they continue on some form of Putinism but on a more friendlier scale, they could potentially become the next super power at the end of the century, after China. No one believes it but I see the seeds are there.
It is great to hear from an on the ground observer
I agree with you that Russia is currently in an Awakening, although it is early stages having started in the last two to four years. A season of history that it is sharing will nearly all of the Former Soviet Union (minus for the Baltic States and Moldavia which are aligned with the rest of Europe). Also, I argue that Russia shares the same saeculum with other countries such as Iran, Turkey, Mongolia, along with Kurdish majority regions of Syria and Iraq. Not to mention regions of China such as Outer Mongolia and Xinjiang.
In all these regions the 1900s and 1910s are considered by their peoples as a time of great struggles when their societies institutional order was totally transformed. Also, the period c.1978-c.2000 is seen by these societies as a similar sort of era. So, I argue by understanding the zeitgeist of these societies you can understand very well phenomena such as the Bolshevik Revolution, Fall of the Soviet Union, Iranian Revolution, along with the Young Turk Revolution and the rise of Attaturk.