The Partisan Divide on Issues

[Kinser79]

(05-18-2020, 06:36 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-18-2020, 05:42 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-17-2020, 08:28 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Good thing you're not in charge of words then.  

I’ve generally been of the Republican / conservative / red against Democrat / progressive / blue labeling school.  No reason to change now.  If they call themselves conservative, that’s good enough for me.  If you have suddenly become a fan of the leader of that faction, you are stuck with the label.

But I sympathize with the dictionary definition of the word being at odds with their actual policies.  The problem with being the party of the elites is that there are not enough elites to win an election.  You have to grab onto enough populist issues to actually win.  Thus you get a weird connections.  In the late Gilded Age they were isolationists, but by Bush 43’s time they were Neo Cons pushing Neo Colonialism.  In Lincoln’s time they were pushing the northern Robber Baron perspective and black rights.  By Nixon’s and Reagan’s time it was the Southern Strategy.  In short, they have flip flopped so many times over the years that their approach of winning at all costs has not left them with much in the way of a one word comprehensive strategy.

But the key is that you are an owner.  You know who butters your bread.  You have always favored the elites over the people.  That puts you on the red side, and the red side.  It is all natural for one who values green paper more than grandma.

I'll have to agree with Kinser -- a least a little.  We're in the midst of a transition to <insert the ideology of choice> on the right.  That really means that the right is now just as confused about themselves as the left.  Let's agree that neoliberalism has run its course, but powerful neoliberals still control the Democratic Party.  This should be their last hurrah, with the only Silent running for President with a real chance of getting there.  On the GOP side, its their version of neoliberals and neocons that are in decline, and the hyper nationalists on the rise.  That qualifies as a realignment in my book, but its hell-and-gone from complete on either side.  Because the GOP is the more regimented party, the transition there has been more sudden and less well planned.

I would argue that Left and Right aren't very good fits for the parties either but that being said the GOP tends to be more right than left both historically and currently while the Democrats are and always have been full spectrum, the idea of them being more on the left than the right is a hang over from FDR and not even all that accurate.

I would say that yes both parties are in a state of flux, but when aren't they?  In the GOP our factions can be broken down thusly:

Neocons,
Business Republicans,
Religious/Social Conservatives,
American Nationalists, and
Libertarians/Classical Liberals.

The last class is the smallest and best represented by Ron and Rand Paul, this group has been in the Party since the days of Lincoln.  The American Nationalists are a growing contingent in the Party as Nationalism is being awoken in Business Republicans and Former Business Democrats are being absorbed into the Party.  Religious/Social Conservatives are on the downswing right now as Boomers age out.  Xer Republicans may or may not have Religious or Socially Conservative views but those aren't their driving motives--usually Business or Nationalism is however.  

The Neocon faction is being excised from the Party, these types are the Bushites and they are either dropping Neo-conservatism or they are decamping to the Democrats.  The former is happening for the majority of them though.  They are relatively comfortable with the Religious/Social Conservatives and so long as they don't drag us into wars or negatively impact business the Nationalist and Business factions aren't inclined to fight them externally.  Internally though...well lets just say I never saw such arguments when a Democrat Club member.

In my particular case I'm an American Nationalist with strong Libertarian/Classical Liberal (Liberal is derived from the word Liberty) leanings.  And I do have a not so small business interest.  The American Nationalists are a new part of the coalition and were largely brought in by Trump tapping into Tea Party frustrations and others who feel that the Democrats don't offer anything except an America Last policy base.

On the Democrat side we have the following factions:

Social-Justice Warrior types (essentially these replace the Dixiecrat Racists who've all died/aged out; and they are still racists though they just hate white people now)
Socialists
Racial Minorities still holding to New Deal Era Economic and Great Society Civil Rights promises (which will never be fulfilled).

Neo-liberals still are around too but they are aging out and like Neo-Conservatism has been found to be morally and intellectually bankrupt.  This is a dying faction, though NeoLib actors may remain active and in the party like with the Neocons they will simply attach themselves to different factions.

Business Democrats (both owners and Union types).

With the Democrats however the Business Democrats are decamping to the GOP, the American Nationalist faction appeals to them.  The socialist faction has been around since the days of FDR but are small and honestly the very name socialism turns Americans off...they are going no where.  The SJW types will lead to nothing but more internal division and disorganization.  They cannot be the basis of a party for long--they are too factious.  The Neolibs are dying out. 


So that leaves what?  Those racial and ethnic minorities?  Unfortunately for the Democrats these are their version of Low Information Voters.

Will the Democratic Party survive?  Probably.  A remnant of the Business Democrats will remain with that party, most likely Silly-Con Valley types and they have the cash to prop it up at least for a while.  

At present the only real future for the Democrats to be more than a Left-Coast and North East regional zombie party (much like it was for most of the post Civil War era but in the South) is for them to absorb the Greens but I'm not even sure that will save them.  Rather I'm watching the Greens and other left leaning third parties to be a potential replacement.

But barring some disaster of epic proportions Trump will be re-elected in 2020, and a Republican will be elected in 2024.  After 2024 the 1T will have started and we'll be in store for the Mega-Crisis that I predicted.