06-20-2020, 12:20 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-20-2020, 12:26 AM by Eric the Green.)
2016 is a tough one. Lichtman technically got this one wrong, because historically the Keys are correct for the popular vote. But he got credit because he predicted Trump would win, and he did through the Electoral College. Let's see if I agree with him that the incumbent Democrats were going to lose.
Key
1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE. Republicans gained seats and won the senate in 2014.
2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. FALSE Bernie Sanders
3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Lichtman considered that Gary Johnson was a significant challenger, because at one point he had over 5% in the polls, plus there was Jill Stein. FALSE
5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE
7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE, Obamacare, but only early in the administration's first term.
8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. TRUE, although there were the mistakes in Syria and Benghazi.
11
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. FALSE Although the Paris Agreement was important, it did not concern the security or standing of the United States directly.
12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE, although he was certainly a skilled entertainer and had a loyal base. The fact remains that Hillary actually had a higher approval rating throughout the campaign.
That's a close call, but the incumbent party got 6 false keys, and 3 of the trues were shaky, and so Lichtman predicted that Hillary would lose and Trump would win.
Key
1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE. Republicans gained seats and won the senate in 2014.
2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. FALSE Bernie Sanders
3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Lichtman considered that Gary Johnson was a significant challenger, because at one point he had over 5% in the polls, plus there was Jill Stein. FALSE
5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE
7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE, Obamacare, but only early in the administration's first term.
8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. TRUE, although there were the mistakes in Syria and Benghazi.
11
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. FALSE Although the Paris Agreement was important, it did not concern the security or standing of the United States directly.
12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE, although he was certainly a skilled entertainer and had a loyal base. The fact remains that Hillary actually had a higher approval rating throughout the campaign.
That's a close call, but the incumbent party got 6 false keys, and 3 of the trues were shaky, and so Lichtman predicted that Hillary would lose and Trump would win.