The Partisan Divide on Issues

[Eric the Green]

(07-21-2020, 10:27 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(07-20-2020, 11:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(07-20-2020, 10:35 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: How would you plan to eat during the Liberal war with Rural America? How do you keep Suburban America from siding with Rural America? How do keep what's left of Urban America from leaving and siding with Suburban America and Rural America? You're right, Liberal America which ain't all that liberal or all that democratic either these days would end up getting smoked by America.

I'm not worried about suburbia.  Right now suburbia is going big time towards Biden.  The key is the virus.  There are lots of people who value life, and more people are seeing the need for a scientific response, both for life and the economy.  The idea of ignoring problems to keep government small and taxes low has gone way past the point of diminishing return.  This is becoming obvious enough to a lot of people.

The rural militias are most concerned with the Second Amendment, and always have gone with democracy, no matter which way the transfer of power goes.

The keys are the virus and the economy and whether or not the liberals are going to allow their children to go to school or not because that's going to have a major impact too. Oh, and then there's the civil unrest that everyone witnessed that's still going on and defunding law enforcement shit that's going to factor as well. Biden is candidate because Biden was the only liberal candidate that the Southern black establishment trusted to keep the federal jobs, grants  and investment money flowing their way.

The Lichtman Keys are a good model of such "keys." Right now Donald Trump is trying hard to turn Key 8, the social unrest key, against himself, by provoking demonstrations and protests and trying to provoke violence by violently suppressing peaceful protest. This is the kind of behavior we see in Syria or China, and it will be resisted. Trump promises to bring his gestapo tactics from Portland to Seattle, Chicago and Oakland and to all the blue cities. So he is trying his best to turn key 8 against himself. We'll see what Lichtman himself says at the end of the month.

Lichtman gives Trump credit for changing national policy, Key #7, but this author from soapboxie (link below) does not, and I can't see that Trump has changed any national policy. His only legislative achievement is to continue the Reagan/Bush tax cut policy. He weakened Obamacare by destroying the national mandate, but the ACA is still there and his promised replacement never happens. Violating national law by not enforcing laws on pollution and by breaking laws on asylum is not a change in national policy, but mere failure to carry it out.

Some people argue that Trump's defeat of the IS turned Key 11 in favor if Trump. I argue that he just completed a policy that Obama had created, and eventually defeated his own policy by allowing IS terrorists to go free and betraying the Kurds who did most of the fighting.

I think Key 5, short term economy, has already turned against Trump, and Key 6 long-term economic performance may turn against him as well. But Lichtman himself will make a decision on this at the end of July, we think. The corona virus has gotten worse and put more people out of work. Although his task force team has done some work, it has not stopped the virus, and now it appears likely it will continue to threaten us for the rest of the year. I don't see how economic performance can improve under these conditions, but technically keys 5 and 6 remain uncertain.

6 Keys must turn false for Trump to lose. Including Key 7 (which Lichtman doesn't turn false, but soapboxie does), 5 have turned false:

Key 1: the Democrats took back the House, so Trump's party has lost ground since the previous midterm
Key 7: Trump has accomplished no major changes in domestic policy
Key 9: Scandal is ongoing in this administration
Key 11: Trump has not achieved a major foreign policy success
Key 12: the incumbent is not charismatic or a national hero

Keys now turning false against Trump, but still uncertain:

Key 5: short term economy not in recession during the campaign
Key 6: long term GDP surpasses that of the previous 2 terms
Key 8: social unrest not happening

Keys holding true for Trump, as of now:

Key 2: Incumbent's party nomination is not contested.
Key 3: The incumbent party's nominee is the current president
Key 4: No important third party or independent challenge
Key 10: Trump admin has not had a major foreign policy defeat or failure
Key 13: Challenging candidate is not charismatic or a national hero

https://soapboxie.com/us-politics/Predic...rn-in-2020