(07-28-2020, 10:50 AM)David Horn Wrote:(07-27-2020, 11:08 PM)Einzige Wrote: I said this four years ago:
(10-22-2016, 02:21 AM)Einzige Wrote: On the subject of a Regeneracy, it's probably important to bear in mind that, if there's something to the Megacycle theory and we're in the closing years of a Megaunraveling (with 1789-1865/76 as a Megahigh and 1865/76-1945 as a Megaawakening), there may not be a big Regeneracy this time. The Unraveling exists in opposite and inverted proportion to the High, at a time of "falling demand for social order". My bet is that the Crises of Megaunravelings see the weakest Regeneracies and the Crises of Megaawakenings the strongest Regeneracies.
Doesn't mean there won't be one, but that it may be so subtle that we'll be arguing about whether it actually happened for a long time. Hell, it may have already happened.
I stand by it. The renewed BLM protests, the Corona response, are sort of a Regeneracy, but they are weak ones without the kind of overwhelming mandate that, say, the total discrediting of the isolationists on December 7th, 1941 went through. I believe the Pearl Harbor regeneracy to be a Megaawakening regeneracy, so the total conversion of the nation to interventionism overnight fits my view.
We are, I think, currently undergoing a Regeneracy - a Megaunraveling Regeneracy, which is necessarily weak and splintery.
The outcome? Trump probably loses; Biden tamps down a few wingnuts militias and gets Pantheoned by liberals as a GOAT just for existing. Nothing gets resolved and we're on our way to the Megacrisis.
There is more right than wrong here. I've been in the "failed 4T" clan for years, because there is just no appetite for truly resolving anything. It's not even the case that we can't fully see what's wrong. We can. It's more a case of societal ennui. I fully agree that capitalism has run its course, and will finally fail in the next saeculum. I still have to get my mind around an alternative that promotes something akin to entrepreneurial efforts, or nothing advances. The motivation will have to be different, but the result needs to be new ideas.
I don't even think it's going to be a 'failed' 4T, tho. I think this is just what happens when you have a 4T in the midst of a Megacyclical.3T. Society splinters and frays further, setting the stage for the time of civilizational crisis just around the corner.
Every Crisis echoes its Megasaeculum. The Civil War was a phenomenon of regime consolidation, befitting a Mega-1T. The Second World War was a total war ideological struggle, as one would expect in a Mega-2T. This crisis is multifaceted, relatively mellow but full of events which don't really seem to gel into any coherent narrative, with what people have identified as a "Phone Fourth" preceding it - a pretty good candidate for the crisis of a mega-3T. The problems of this saeculum cannot be resolved as neatly as in the 4T of another Megaturning; we have to have our Megacrisis after all.