Has the regeneracy arrived?

[Kinser79]

(05-15-2016, 03:04 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-15-2016, 01:21 PM)Odin Wrote: I think the difference between this 4T and the last is that this 4T is just as much a political crisis  (like in the Civil War 4T) as it is an economic crisis, and because the edge of the economic crisis was taken off by swift action by governments there is not the same urgent fear of "if we don't go along and play nice the people are going to go Fascist or Communist and have us hanging from lampposts".

I have no problem with that observation.  My feeling is that the big changes that came with FDR's Hundred Days were only possible because lots of people knew that the next team at bat after FDR would be the communists.  McCarthy found so many former members of the Communist Party in the 1950s because a lot of people were just that fed up with the democratic / capitalist status quo.

Still, to me, the late 3T is the time when extremists are saying extreme things, and the terrorists are staging violent events intended to create action.  The regeneracy is the point when selected extreme plans are put into action, and if there is a military element the terrorists don't need to provoke action as the troops are mobilized and marching.  Thus, Harper's Ferry would be a late and major catalyst that brought things to the edge, while Fort Sumter was a trigger that drove things off the edge.  Somewhere between those two there was a regeneracy, with both North and South committing themselves to drastic action.  I see room for sincere disagreement between the two.

To me, today, as we have multiple extremists pushing conflicting plans, and there is no united push to implement anything, we're still 3T.  Yes, it's political.  No, the transformation has not been committed to.  No, nothing has been implemented yet.

Still, it's not clear to me that everyone has agreed on a common definition of 'regeneracy', or 'Grey Champion'.  If one defines 'regeneracy' as "there are extremists ruling around saying extreme stuff" and 'Grey Champion' as meaning "an extremist who says extreme stuff" one can state another opinion.  I just prefer stricter benchmarks.

By your line of argument then we should have been in a 3T for far longer than a turning should last, even if you take the late date of 1984 as the end of the 2T like I do. This of course breaks the theory--not to mention doesn't conform to history.

Let us face it, there are only two extreme plans out there, and then there is the status quo. Since Sanders won't win the Dem Nomination his plan (Democratic Socialism) won't come to the front without HRC swinging massively to the left, which is about as likely to happen as the earth being hit by an asteroid 1000km across tomorrow. The other extreme plan is Nationalism, Protectionism and Isolationism offered by Trump (which isn't that extreme historically).

Given that it seems that Trump's message is catching on I foresee him becoming President quite handily and implmenting that plan. The rest of the GOP has already fallen in line minus a few #NeverTrump clowns most of whom are RINOs anyway according to RW press.

As such I see no evidence at all that we're in a 3T, furthermore much evidence we have been in a 4T for quite some time, of course I also subscribe to the theory that S&H made the CivWarSaec 4T far too short and it really should have started in the 1850s (with the compromise of 1850 being the catalyst).

If we add to that the Mega-saeculum theory that the MillSaec itself is a Mega Unraveling then it becomes apparent that the whole saeculum has been dominated by at least two extreme positions dukeing it out since the end of WW2. As such it is only natural for this 4T to have a 3T like feel. I imagine that the next saeculum will be a saeculum long crisis on many fronts.