The Coronavirus

[beechnut79]

(05-25-2020, 07:48 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(05-24-2020, 09:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-24-2020, 09:35 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-24-2020, 01:05 PM)sbarrera Wrote: Seems the lockdown measure are more neccessary in the hot zone, and should be continued.

I don't think it's obvious that the measures that are currently failing to control the number of cases in the "hot zone" are the ones that should be continued.

I live in an urban suburb of Boston, a hot area of a hot zone.  We had a fairly severe shutdown with people basically going to grocery and drug stores and nowhere else.  This reduced travel and should have reduced the viral reproduction rate R by a factor of 10, but the actual result of a new case reduction that's extremely gradual showed a reduction in R by a factor of 3 at most.  Something is going on beyond the shutdown.

Possibilities include a very high R on the subway system, which remained open, or transmission by some other vector, like food or something, or an external driver, like people travelling from New York.  We don't know what it was, but we need to find out, because we need for the interventions to become more effective, rather than just resorting to the ones that are most draconian but are of limited effectiveness.

I'm hoping masks will help, but masks will only address the same tranmission vectors that we thought we were already addressing.

I suspect a lot of it is individuals failing to take the precautions seriously enough.  Mothers holding sleepovers, or dropping kids off at shut down malls to socialize might be examples.  Too many people are stuck in the unraveling mindset, putting their own convenience ahead of the community's need.  Trump is keeping up his open up do not take this seriously narrative in opposition to the hot zone governors position.  As a result many are extending the lockdown and hitting themselves in the economy.

But the result is to bring us below an R0 of one.  We are not quite blowing the health care system away.

It's not the R0, its the R. R is the observed infection rate. R0 is the infection rate under natural conditions, typically at the beginning of an outbreak. That is, it is the base case, hence the subscript 0.

For Warren, R0 is a first order rate constant for infection kinetics.  R is the rate constant after you take into account various inhibitors like social distancing, mask-wearing and weather, plus mass-action effects like isolation & contact tracing or brute-force actions like shutdowns.

(07-30-2020, 01:21 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: COVID-19 just took the life of entrepreneur and political figure Herman Cain. Diagnosed on June 29, he died on July 20 of its complications.

Another of more than 150,000 people in America.