Age of Disorder

[Eric the Green]

(09-09-2020, 11:48 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: I couldn’t resist posting this new thread based on related articles published today. They have some relevance to Fourth Turning theory, in general, and to intergenerational conflict, in particular:

Millennials to redistribute wealth from older generations to the young in new ‘age of disorder,' warns Deutsche strategist - MarketWatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-wo...1599589831

The Age of Disorder - the new era for economics, politics and our way of life - Deutsche Bank

https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb...0000511857

Here is an excerpt (opening paragraphs) from the MarketWatch article:

It probably won’t take a great deal of persuasion to convince investors that there’s an “age of disorder.”

That’s the title of a new Deutsche Bank research note, which says the world is entering its sixth distinct era of modern times. 

So say goodbye to the “era of globalization” and brace yourself for the “age of disorder” where millennials, firmly established as the generation of ‘have nots’,take their revenge and redistribute wealth from the old to young. Millennials are usually defined as those between the ages of 22 and 38 years old in 2019, according to Nielsen Media Research. 

What I find interesting here is the counter-narrative to the argument posed by Strauss and Howe in their book.  They maintained that any fiscal crisis that arises in the fourth turning would be addressed by a willing sacrifice on the part of Boomers for the sake of younger generations.  The Deutsche Bank analysis argues quite the opposite, that Millennials will vote for redistributive reductions in Boomer wealth (and entitlements?) in order to make up for the intergenerational inequities.  In other words, rather than the heroic financial sacrifice on the part of older generations for the benefit of the young, as predicted by S&H, Boomers will be sacrificed—unwillingly—at the ballot box.  Revanchism, not altruism, as a way to balance the scales.

Should America fall off some kind of fiscal cliff, that’s actually how I see things playing out, the way that Deutsche Bank has predicted.  You can already see glimmers of that in the stark contrast between the old and the young with respect to COVID-19. The attitudes and behaviors, taken as a whole, could not be more different.  I fully expect that much steeper tax rates will be enacted on both income and wealth.  And local policies that tend to deny Millennials and Gen-Z opportunities to have affordable housing, such as restrictive zoning laws (NIMBY), will also go by the wayside. 

I find it interesting, too, that the Deutsche Bank report refers to the time period lasting from 1980 to 2020 as a bygone epoch. This epoch, of course, is the neoliberal era that becomes a “dead letter” now, in my opinion.  What comes next is anybody’s guess...

Of course, this is basically correct. The neo-liberal era is not quite over yet, but it might be after this election, if Americans finally quit going back and forth between moderates and right-wingers, as they did in 1994 and 2010, and which will require that this new generation become real civics and vote in midterm elections as David Hogg reminded them in 2018.

It's not really a generational issue, except for the voting pattern. Plenty of boomers are also victims of the neo-liberal regime, but being older have been more prone (along with Silents and Xers) to accept the established propaganda. Millennials are just more hip to the situation and are more frequently held back by the neo-liberal regime than are older generations.

If there is disorder, which seems likely in the 2020s, it will because the right-wing is still hooked on its dated culture and ideology and is fighting the needed changeover from neo-liberalism, which also involves the right-wing's attachment to christian propaganda (using the abortion issue as an anti-feminist weapon) and to their guns and their xenophobia.

What comes next, although it's not clear just when, is the Green New Deal and Medicare for All, which are now anti-left buzzwords, but are actually just what is needed. In general, a return to more of what the right-wing calls "socialism" combined with more democratic, green and humanistic values, but not replacement of "free enterprise" per se, but more control of the oligarchy; an updated version of the New Deal and, just simply, renewed progress after the unnecessary stalemate and regression imposed upon us for the last 40 (quickly-passing, empty) years by the charming faux-macho actor and his followers.