The Partisan Divide on Issues

[Eric the Green]

(09-13-2020, 09:15 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: I've heard that the Democrats are over represented in most of today's polls.

Jeff Greenfield, whom I linked to on the election 2020 thread, suggests that some Trump voters don't answer polls, and it may also be true that some may be too ashamed to admit their preference. The polls are probably trying to save their reputations by contacting as many people as they can. Will there be enough passionate Trump supporters like in 2016 who vote in greater numbers than less-motivated Biden supporters, Jeff asks.

In some ways Biden is better positioned than Hillary was to keep her poll numbers up through the election. Biden is certainly not making Hillary's mistake of ignoring the 3 former blue rust-belt states that voted for Trump over Hillary by 1% and gave him his electoral college win. Biden is less hated than Hillary was among misogynist rural voters, and he has more rapport with the working class people, some of whom deserted Hillary for Trump's false promises in 2016. And PA is Biden's original home state. More younger voters and fewer older ones are on the rolls than 4 years ago, perhaps enough to shift that 1% margin to Biden. And Democratic governors have since been elected in those states, which may mean less voter purging. Trump's pandemic has hurt him a bit so far in Florida and North Carolina, which supported Trump narrowly in 2016 and now are polling narrowly for Biden. And Arizona's shift toward hispanics, who are mistreated by Trump, is turning that state light blue right now, and Nevada is likely to stay light blue too for the same reason. The constant Trump scandals give a few independents pause, even though the Trump base does not give a damn about them and is hooked on Fox News commentary and on hatred for mainstream media. Biden's higher horoscope score verifies that Biden is inherently a more-skilled and likable candidate than Hillary. Trump and his associates have not yet been able to hang a severe scandal on him they way they did on Hillary.

The major factor that might hurt Biden this year, that was not a factor in 2016, is the pandemic itself-- even though Trump's performance about it has hurt his chances. Wisconsin's supreme court is playing games with the election, which could delay mail-in ballots. That state and other eastern swing states have not moved simply to mail every voter a ballot, but require sending in a request for one, which may even require a witness to sign the request form. This and the antics at the post office is making mail-in voting harder, at a time when Democrats are more likely to do mail-in voting because they accept science and the danger it reports about the virus, while Republicans are more likely to think social distancing and masks are an attack on their freedom. So the initial results in the east could favor Trump, and the harder mail-in voting could not only delay the results but also discourage some reluctant, less-passionate Democrats from voting.