11-12-2020, 02:19 PM
(09-11-2020, 04:06 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(09-10-2020, 04:14 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Their approach is distinctly quantitative
Any chance you could provide something referencing actual numbers, then? I'm having a hard time seeing how upheaval in 1870 could be said to be quantitatively more than in 1860, and 1920 seems like a relatively quiet time in US history to me.
Sorry, for the belated reply. (I’m still dealing with a post-cancer medical regimen.). Peter Turchin is obviously the expert who can speak to the “actual numbers.” If you’re still interested, you might check out his Ages of Discord book, a sample of which I read not long ago. Warning, though, it’s pretty dense. I also watched a recent YouTube video of his explaining his theory, but his long lecture—and Q and A— doesn’t exactly jump off the screen. Even so, I pretty much buy into his theory, and read his blog as he releases updates. His quantitative theory of history obviously diverges from that of Strauss and Howe in many respects. But I find it interesting that both theories see 2020 as some kind of a major inflection point in American history.