01-11-2021, 12:05 AM
(01-08-2021, 02:42 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Two years after Pearl Harbor the US had started to liberate Italy (and it was a liberation)whittling away at the "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" and started collecting troops for the D-Day onslaught (and death blow in the west upon the Third Reich) while delivering much-needed food and truckis to the Soviet Union -- which needed them. Four years after Pearl Harbor, Hitler and Mussolini would be dead and Tojo would be in custodyFiguring that financial panics typically define the start of a Crisis Era, we are likely in the equivalent of 1943.
The political crisis is over.
I think this is incredibly over optimistic. You can't use the Great Powers cycle to predict potential outcomes as that one had far, far, less internecine conflict. In fact, most of the out-groups from the start were viewed as external foes - fascists, communists, immigrants, etc. - which made the chosen scapegoats something that needed to be ejected, not rooted out. Also, the culmination of the crisis was via an external war, which allowed for reconciliation of those previously in the out-group back into the fold.
I'm not sure our current situation is analogous to any of the ones we've experienced in the past, but I am sure we are nowhere close to 1943 (a united America fighting an external enemy as the internal crisis comes to a close). We could be closer to 1864/5 or 1789 France depending on how far away the end of the crisis is and how well the left maintains it's current state of social cohesion. If, in the coming months, there is the out-grouping of even moderate conservatives intensifies and the out-grouping of centrists and the center-left begins, then it would indicate to me that we are closer to a 'Revolution' cycle - which should concern anyone concerned that basic civil rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness should be secure for all people and not just those on the 'right' side.