01-11-2021, 12:54 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-11-2021, 12:58 AM by Warren Dew.)
(01-09-2021, 04:40 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Yes, 2028, or 2029; I'm not sure which. Mr. Howe, the co-author of The Fourth Turning, says 2029. I think people here can look on Mr. Howe's determination with some respect, given that he and Mr. Strauss started this whole conversation.
I think of Howe as the lightweight of the Strauss/Howe pair, just as Murray seemed to be the lightweight of the Herrnstein/Murray pair. If you have independent reason to believe in 2028 or 2029, I'd be interested.
I feel like 2028 is late in the cycle - it would make Zoomers Millenials - but on the other hand, the likely Biden wins in 2020 and 2024 do conform to George Friedman's timetable as well, and he also predicts 2028 will be the turning point based on mostly separate theories.
January 6 is an indicator of what the crisis is about, but certainly not a turning point. It didn't even delay the counting of electoral votes by a day, let alone change them. Don't expect Alphas to start getting born for some years.
A compromise along the lines of greater devolution in our Federal system, like the Compromise of 1876, can happen in a first turning but not in a fourth turning. Arguably it can only happen in a first turning. So, it may happen, but in the 2040s, not the 2020s.
People are still thinking in terms of traditional Republicans and Democrats. This is like thinking of the Civil War in terms of Whigs versus Democrats. Both Whigs and Democrats had members that supported and opposed slavery; it wasn't until the Republican party formed that the party lines matched the slavery divide - along with the divide on tariffs for those who think that was the reason for the Civil War - and even then it was imperfect.
This time around, it will be workers versus globalists. With Biden, and with the alignment of the Tech monopolists with the Democratic party, it appears the Democrats will be the globalist party.
During the gunpowder era, the workers would have won, because gunpowder wars were won by the larger army. With the current dominance of nuclear weapons and cyber warfare, the globalists might win instead. If that happens, we can say goodbye to democracy and individual rights.