01-16-2021, 08:01 AM
Dangit I got far behind on this great post!
Cocoapuff- 100%, the attemped capital massacre is my current frontrunner for “national mood turning point” that leads to the start of Alphas being born, but lets see how inauguration goes before finalizing that as things can still get much much worse.
Mamabug- Welcome back! I disagree 100% with Strauss/Howe’s timing of Boomers to starting 2 years before the end of WWII. That makes no sense. The boom didn’t start, and the mood of the nation didn’t change, until the war ended. Boomers start in 1946. Strauss/Howe got many things write conceptually, but their date selections are all largely made up crap. Relatedly, I’ve been trying to figure out the years of the Civil War 4th Turning and have become convinced that the Civil War wasn’t the END of the turning, it was the START. The true resolution of the conflict came in 1877 as the racists retook the South and have held it since. So that Turning I would argue was 1860-1877 (which is a very neat 18 years). I also agree the Democrats internally have some issues down the line, but I think Biden is going to make them so big tent in the next few years that they pull off total control for much of the decade. But then AOC is gonna get real fed up and third party the fuck out of them in the 2030’s (and win :/ ).
End of the crisis?
I’m in the camp (probably with Cocoapuff pbrower) that the 4th turning Is likely at its end. Trump is about to go to war with the Establishment R’s which will only empower the Democrats. In political science terms, this will likely be looked at as a critical election that ended the Sixth Party System ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_Part...d%20beyond. ) . I can see in the short run things getting worse, but as the pandemic ends happiness may yet wash away the tired resentments we’ve all been stewing in since the start of this Turning ( which was 9/11).
My bet is that the Democrats are about to become the party of big business (which is Silicon Valley now) and much of the Mitt Romney type Republicans will realign to the Democratic Party. As Trump primaries Establishment R’s those R’s and their voters won’t turn around and support Trump, they will most likely just become Democrats like we’ve seen with the Lincoln Project.
Without any legitimate route to a majority, Trump’s existential threat to the country has effectively ended. And if Biden can actually pull off a realignment, then the true crisis ( hyperpolarization) will also end.
Besides, Millennials are all about to take over society from the Boomers and all their drama is gonna be pushed aside. The old scars and battles just won’t be relevant as the new controlling generation starts fighting its own internal battles and creating its own party identities. Every crisis has been caused by the Prophet Generation, and this crisis may be the first one that ends because this is the first Prophet Generation to make it to retirement without starting an existential war.
As anticlimactic as it is, the clock just ran out of time. Trump is the last Boomer President, and with Pete in the primary and Jon Ossoff becoming the first Millennial Senator the Hero Generation is finally taking the keys away from the Boomers.
Cocoapuff- 100%, the attemped capital massacre is my current frontrunner for “national mood turning point” that leads to the start of Alphas being born, but lets see how inauguration goes before finalizing that as things can still get much much worse.
Mamabug- Welcome back! I disagree 100% with Strauss/Howe’s timing of Boomers to starting 2 years before the end of WWII. That makes no sense. The boom didn’t start, and the mood of the nation didn’t change, until the war ended. Boomers start in 1946. Strauss/Howe got many things write conceptually, but their date selections are all largely made up crap. Relatedly, I’ve been trying to figure out the years of the Civil War 4th Turning and have become convinced that the Civil War wasn’t the END of the turning, it was the START. The true resolution of the conflict came in 1877 as the racists retook the South and have held it since. So that Turning I would argue was 1860-1877 (which is a very neat 18 years). I also agree the Democrats internally have some issues down the line, but I think Biden is going to make them so big tent in the next few years that they pull off total control for much of the decade. But then AOC is gonna get real fed up and third party the fuck out of them in the 2030’s (and win :/ ).
End of the crisis?
I’m in the camp (probably with Cocoapuff pbrower) that the 4th turning Is likely at its end. Trump is about to go to war with the Establishment R’s which will only empower the Democrats. In political science terms, this will likely be looked at as a critical election that ended the Sixth Party System ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_Part...d%20beyond. ) . I can see in the short run things getting worse, but as the pandemic ends happiness may yet wash away the tired resentments we’ve all been stewing in since the start of this Turning ( which was 9/11).
My bet is that the Democrats are about to become the party of big business (which is Silicon Valley now) and much of the Mitt Romney type Republicans will realign to the Democratic Party. As Trump primaries Establishment R’s those R’s and their voters won’t turn around and support Trump, they will most likely just become Democrats like we’ve seen with the Lincoln Project.
Without any legitimate route to a majority, Trump’s existential threat to the country has effectively ended. And if Biden can actually pull off a realignment, then the true crisis ( hyperpolarization) will also end.
Besides, Millennials are all about to take over society from the Boomers and all their drama is gonna be pushed aside. The old scars and battles just won’t be relevant as the new controlling generation starts fighting its own internal battles and creating its own party identities. Every crisis has been caused by the Prophet Generation, and this crisis may be the first one that ends because this is the first Prophet Generation to make it to retirement without starting an existential war.
As anticlimactic as it is, the clock just ran out of time. Trump is the last Boomer President, and with Pete in the primary and Jon Ossoff becoming the first Millennial Senator the Hero Generation is finally taking the keys away from the Boomers.