01-23-2021, 01:58 AM
I suppose that it is time to see how different things are with Joe Biden than with Donald Trump.
A hint: my blood pressure seems to have gone up. Coincidence or cause? I'm back on blood-pressure medicine.
Assessment:
Expectations were far lower for Donald Trump than for Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton tore deeply into Trump without defeating him where it counted (the Electoral College), and Trump started with little room for failure.
Although it is possible to begin with astronomical support at the start of one's Administration and still lose a re-election bid (Jimmy Carter, and had there been polling in early 1929 it would have almost certainly given high hopes for Herbert Hoover) it is far more difficult to be President if one's initial support is shaky.
President Biden has much more political capital at his disposal than did Donald Trump. We all know what Trump did as President (satisfying his Base but doing little for anyone else)... and it obviously did not work to get him re-elected. It is never enough to please the Base and not seek new supporters unless one starts with a clear majority. Add to this, Donald Trump is a terribly-flawed person who had no preparation for the Presidency. Experience in business has little relevance to success in public office because government does not operate as a profit-and-loss entity. The only political systems in which government activity largely operates on a profit-and-loss basis are "socialist" states in which the government owns and operates practically all economic activity, as in North Korea today and the Soviet Union in its infamous past.
With more political capital and fewer deficiencies of character (admit it, Republicans -- Donald Trump is a loathsome character, and you would have been better off with someone more like Mitt Romney or the late Gerald Ford as President!) Joe Biden will be able to take more chances to appeal to people not in the Democratic base through legitimate achievement.
At this point I am getting into the realm of prediction without having adequate data. It is possible to have 45% approval at a low point and get re-elected. Incumbents do that more often than not for Senatorial and Gubernatorial offices. There will be people who expect certain things out of President Biden and do not get them. They will not vote for him in 2024.
Cultural change did not work in Trump's favor. I cannot assume that it will for President Biden. I cannot predict how strong an opponent he will face in 2024. I cannot predict whether America will be in hard or easy (or clearly improving) economic times.
We have this poll. President Biden got 51% of the popular vote while barely winning the Electoral College (a 0.32% even shift of the popular vote would have put the election in the House of Representatives in a tie at 269-269, which Trump would have won) which is far better as a prospect of the next election than getting just under 46% of the popular vote but winning the Electoral College because one wins the "right" states.
I do not know what conclusion to draw from Biden getting a share of the total popular vote higher than that of Ronald Reagan in 1980. Nothing says that Joe Biden will be more successful as President than Ronald Reagan in getting re-elected in the next election.
It's too early to say anything that isn't already obvious.
A hint: my blood pressure seems to have gone up. Coincidence or cause? I'm back on blood-pressure medicine.
Quote:First Reuters/Ipsos poll on Biden-
Approve: 55%
Disapprove: 32%
Trump's first poll had him at 43%.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/file...2_2021.pdf
Assessment:
Expectations were far lower for Donald Trump than for Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton tore deeply into Trump without defeating him where it counted (the Electoral College), and Trump started with little room for failure.
Although it is possible to begin with astronomical support at the start of one's Administration and still lose a re-election bid (Jimmy Carter, and had there been polling in early 1929 it would have almost certainly given high hopes for Herbert Hoover) it is far more difficult to be President if one's initial support is shaky.
President Biden has much more political capital at his disposal than did Donald Trump. We all know what Trump did as President (satisfying his Base but doing little for anyone else)... and it obviously did not work to get him re-elected. It is never enough to please the Base and not seek new supporters unless one starts with a clear majority. Add to this, Donald Trump is a terribly-flawed person who had no preparation for the Presidency. Experience in business has little relevance to success in public office because government does not operate as a profit-and-loss entity. The only political systems in which government activity largely operates on a profit-and-loss basis are "socialist" states in which the government owns and operates practically all economic activity, as in North Korea today and the Soviet Union in its infamous past.
With more political capital and fewer deficiencies of character (admit it, Republicans -- Donald Trump is a loathsome character, and you would have been better off with someone more like Mitt Romney or the late Gerald Ford as President!) Joe Biden will be able to take more chances to appeal to people not in the Democratic base through legitimate achievement.
At this point I am getting into the realm of prediction without having adequate data. It is possible to have 45% approval at a low point and get re-elected. Incumbents do that more often than not for Senatorial and Gubernatorial offices. There will be people who expect certain things out of President Biden and do not get them. They will not vote for him in 2024.
Cultural change did not work in Trump's favor. I cannot assume that it will for President Biden. I cannot predict how strong an opponent he will face in 2024. I cannot predict whether America will be in hard or easy (or clearly improving) economic times.
We have this poll. President Biden got 51% of the popular vote while barely winning the Electoral College (a 0.32% even shift of the popular vote would have put the election in the House of Representatives in a tie at 269-269, which Trump would have won) which is far better as a prospect of the next election than getting just under 46% of the popular vote but winning the Electoral College because one wins the "right" states.
I do not know what conclusion to draw from Biden getting a share of the total popular vote higher than that of Ronald Reagan in 1980. Nothing says that Joe Biden will be more successful as President than Ronald Reagan in getting re-elected in the next election.
It's too early to say anything that isn't already obvious.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.