Secular Cycle Links

[Dan '82]

(05-16-2016, 08:31 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Dr. Turchin has attempted to extend the secular cycle theory developed for pre-industrial nations to modern times. He has a book coming out this summer on American secular cycles.  I have read a portion of it in manuscript (he had it posted online--it has since been taken down). Basically he has two American secular cycles dated 1780-1930 and 1930-present. Definitionally, secular cycle are oscillations in empirical data: population, state strength, prices, economic inequality, sociopolitical instability etc.  Industrial societies do not show population cycles, and with the onset of fiat money they don't show price cycles either.  A measure of state strength might be Federal revenue as a % of GDP.  This quantity was in the 2-4% range until the late 1930's when it began a rapid rise to about 18% where it has remained since. This increase is state power is a characteristic sign of a new secular cycle.  Prior to the 1930's the American state was a small player and probably not a good secular indicator.

Another indicator that is still relevant is economic inequality.  The figure below shows a plot of inequality. Four peaks can be seen.  The first three correspond to 4Ts, and also the the emergence of "new republics"  the dividers for which are shown by the vertical dashed lines.  Also shown in the figure is sociopolitical instability.  You can see two big peaks corresponding to the Revolutionary and Civil War 4Ts, and three smaller ones corresponding to the 2Ts.  A third large peak occurs around 1920, during a 3T.  This anomaly is what S&H call the "civil war anomaly".  My explanation for this unrest is that American society had entered a secular cycle crisis in 1907.  Conditions for state collapse due to high levels of sociopolitical instability were present, just as they hand been in 1776 and 1861.  Indeed the period after 1907 saw soaring unrest.  But there was no resolution, no new republic, as there had been the last two times.  The reason why was it was not a 4T.  And so the system settled down and waited until the proper generational constellation showed up and then the economy collapsed.

Today we are in again in a secular cycle crisis  which we entered in 2006.  We were already in a 4T configuration when this happened and just two years later the economy tried to collapse, as it did in 1929.  This event shows up as the same sort of event using my K-cycle tools as 1929 did.  But the ruling elites were able to prevent collapse and so the new republic was stillborn.  What happens next is unclear.  I believe that next year or the next the economy is going to try to collapse again.  We will see.

Looking at that chart one thing that stands out is that inequality sharply declined late in every 4T but that it starting raising early in the Great Power 1T but late in the 2T in the Civil War and Millennial Saeculums