03-25-2021, 03:23 PM
Quote:Michigan - Market Resource Group, March 15-18, 610 likely voters, MoE: 4%
Approve 50%
Disapprove 41%
(the poll connected elsewhere, and a correct link has been made available ).
Quote:Quote:*snip*
Yeah, here’s the actual link to the poll.
https://www.mrgmi.com/2021/03/23/mrg-mic...opinion-4/
It doesn't change the color. The color for Michigan is rather pale, but note well: a gap of 9% approval and disapproval is a big margin under most circumstances, and it is much bigger than the narrow margin (just under 3% of the Biden win in 2020. The map does not really change for this.
Quote:New Hampshire - University of New Hampshire, March 18-22, 1744 registered voters, MoE: 2.3%
Approve 53% (nc)
Disapprove 45% (nc)
https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent...nter_polls
Not all that surprising. New Hampshire has had low ceilings and high floors for both Parties and their pols for a very long time. Joe Biden can win this state by 5% in a close election, but for him to win it in 2024 by 10% or so he will need a D blowout. That would be about 400 electoral votes.
An 8% positive gap between approval and disapproval is good at any stage for so polarized a state.
Approval of handling COVID-19: Biden 60-38 in March. It was 42-58 for Trump in January.
More on former President Trump:
1. According to this pollster he never had higher favorability than approval, although he got close twice, in the spring of 2019 and the spring of 2020. Those were not the right times for being nearly even, let alone above, in favorability.
2. It is now at 37-55. I don't have the numbers for October and November 2020 around Election Day, but the negative gap in New Hampshire was large enough to suggest that Trump had no real chance to win the Granite State in 2020. It is even worse now after his claims that he and his supporters have been cheated. To go further on this is to rehash the overall election, which is no longer relevant in this discussion which seems to point more to 2024 than back to 2000.
3. Speaking of 2024, New Hampshire voters by an overwhelming majority think that the Republican Party (59-37%) believe that Republicans would be wise to move away at the least from the personality of Donald Trump. Only 2% of Democrats and only 34% of Independents think that Republicans would be wise to stick with Trump. But 74% of Republicans apparently have no problem with Trump as their Party's leader.
If I were a conservative Republican, I would recognize that the Democrats know something that the majority of 'my' Party don't know. Getting 74% of 45% of the population, 34% of 10% of the population, and 2% of 45% of the population suggests about 42% of the vote overall, which is close to "Mondale 1984" territory. Americans have tended to live in partisan echo chambers, so it is easy to see that Republicans who still live in an echo chamber in which the can't imagine anyone voting against Donald Trump and his concept of America unless a traitor.
It may take a smashing defeat for Republicans in New Hampshire and elsewhere to recognize how toxic Donald Trump is. But he is that.
4. 66% of Republicans want Trump to run for President in 2024. Only a microscopic 1% of Democrats do, and a small 22% of Independents. That is very low for Democrats who might have cause to see Trump as an easy person to defeat. I have suggested that Trump might go down to a landslide defeat and take a raft of Republican elected officials down with him in 2024...
I'm sure that plenty of Republicans would have been delighted to have Dukakis winning the Democratic nomination in 1992 or Mondale winning the Democratic nomination in either 1992 or 1996. Neither was a menacing figure and had lost big. Trump is a mencing to Democrats for what he did after the election.
5. It is a long time (just over 42 months) to the 2024 election). If nothing happens between now and 2024 except that Joe Biden chooses to run for a second term, then the overall map suggests that President Biden will be re-elected solidly. Assuming that nothing important happens between now and November 2024 is a huge assumption devoid of justification. If I saw polling numbers like this in March 2024 as shown for about a third of the states as on this map I would see President Biden as a shoo-in. But this is March 2021 and not March 2024. (By the way -- the pale pink shade for Texas is effectively a tie). Biden has a distinct lead in a favorability poll in Pennsylvania, so that leaves little opening for any Republican. I do not show favorability ratings for genuine swing states, but I can discuss them to the extent that I see them relevant.
6. So much about one small state? New Hampshire gets so treated very often because it is relevant far beyond its region.
Key:
30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+
50% green shade: tie
30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+
It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled,
I have removed a statewide poll for Missouri because that poll looks spurious for reasons that have nothing to do with the results. The pollster in question has shown no new polls of Missouri.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.