03-31-2021, 11:10 AM
Quote:Arizona LOVES their president!
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1376958319571701764?s=21[/tweet]
Back to twenty states for approval and one (Pennsylvania) for favorability.
(Tweets from Twitter do not show well here, so here is an image over time. Note the inversion of the records of Biden and Trump. This happens when one does the opposite of what a predecessor did . That was extremely unwise for Donald Trump -- even if he hated the guts of Barack Obama, there was much that Obama did right. With Biden, doing the opposite of a President whom History will show as one of the worst, if not the worst, will mostly be sage advice.),
It's hard to believe, but Arizona may be the 2020 equivalent of what West Virginia was in 2000 -- a surprising pick-up for a state that one Party won almost all the time. This polling result suggests that Arizona is starting to resemble Colorado or New Mexico in politics. The demographics of Arizona would seem to be somewhere between New Mexico (a very poor state) and Colorado.
55% approval for a Democrat is freakish... but again, Arizona seems now to be inverting a poll in which Trump was down about 40-55 in approval at one point (I guess it was in 2018).
It is rare that a political figure can get away with doing the opposite of his predecessor as a way to get rw-elected. Trump did that with Barack Obama, which proved unwise in the extreme. Doing the opposite of Obama was one way to get hideous results. A President who gets 365 electoral votes in a country scared of a reprise of the Great Depression and then 332 after things had calmed down had to be doing something right. So Trump hated Barack Obama's guts? Tough luck!
If yoou are going to repudiate someone, then repudiate what is wrong. So you despise your neighbor who regularly sees the dentist and gets his car's oil changed regularly and avoids trouble by paying his bills on time. . Is contempt for your neighbor a good reason for neglecting your teeth and your car and not paying bills on time?
If I were replacing a manager who had just been fired, then among the first questions I would ask is what my predecessor did right. I'm not shaking that! So maybe he brought a suitable assortment of foods to the company picnic and was fussy about neatness in the office as such keeps morale up. But if he is dipping into the take from the soft-drink machine for his patronage of an escort service... that ends, ideally yesterday. If he tells off-color, offensive jokes... likewise. No, you do not get to make jokes about handicapped people. No, the girly calendars go down once and for all.
....It's Wednesday morning, and the day on which the most polls come in. I'm not sure that I fully believe this one, but still, Arizona is close to the national average in the vote, and at times in 2020 it looked as if it would go to Joe Biden by a significantly larger margin than it did. This is the first poll of approval in Arizonaafter the Presidential election... and the sick spectacle whose date will be remembered in somewhat different infamy than December 7, 1941, but infamy nonetheless.
*Pennsylvania is shown as favorability, and favorability has typically been less flattering to the President than
Key:
30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+
50% green shade: tie
30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.