2022 elections: House, Senate, State governorships

[pbrower2a]

(I set up this post on another site, Leip's Election Atlas, and there about everyone uses the archaic red for Democrats and blue for Republicans )

US Senate elections, 2022:

Senate seats up for election in 2022 are so split between Democrats and Republicans:



The 2022 Senate elections still largely reflect the smashing success of Republicans in the "Tea Party" election of 2010, when Republican nominees for the Senate came close to wiping the Democrats off the Senate map where there was a contested race that year. Republicans even won Senate seats in Illinois and Massachusetts in special elections (Obama's former Senate seat and a seat that Ted Kennedy vacated due to death). Only nine Democratic Senate seats remain as holdovers from before the 2010 super wave for the GOP of 2010. Democrats did win back one of those seats (Massachusetts) in 2014 in a regular election, and it is not up in 2022. Democrats won "back" US Senate seats in Illinois and New Hampshire in 2016 and took one over that year (Nevada) that was long held by Republicans and since picked up Arizona and Georgia in special elections in 2020. Freshman Senators from states not super-solid for their Parties are never shoo-ins, so I must weaken the color for Democratic-held Senate seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. The freshman incumbent from Illinois is at no obvious risk of defeat in 2022. Among Republicans who are assumed to be running for re-election the only one who could be defeated based upon the closeness of the state in recent elections is Marco Rubio in Florida, and I may be stretching things a bit here. Likewise, Lisa Murkowski may face a challenge from her Right in a jungle primary that she could lose. I may be stretching things a bit here, but it is too early to not do so. If I call Nevada's Senate seat up in 2022 "vulnerable", then I must so see Florida. Ron Johnson may be retiring in 2022 (such was his promise in 2016)... and in the event that he does not retire, he is the most vulnerable of Republican incumbents in the Senate. Incumbents can lose Governorships and Senate seats even in wave years for their Parties, and Ron Johnson could lose his Senate seat even in a good year for Republicans.

Still, those in pink or light blue at least have the advantage of incumbency.



Retirements are usually even messier for Parties trying to hold onto a Senate seat. It is possible for a Senator to retire in a wave election against his Party in a swing state with a successor from his own Party winning, as Gary Peters did in Michigan in 2014 in succeeding fellow Democrat Carl Levin. Let's put it this way about Alabama: Shelby is retiring, but unless there is another Doug Jones vs. Ray Moore matchup the Republican nominee is going to be in a far stronger position than was Gary Peters in Michigan in 2014. The Republican nominee for the US from Alabama is likely to win his state by 20% or so. Alabama remains dark blue.

But Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have incumbent Senators retiring. These states have had Senatorial and Gubernatorial races decided by narrow margins in recent years. Open seats in these states are literally wide open. Add to this, Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has usually won re-election by huge margins, but he will be 89 as the 2022 Senate election goes into the home stretch.

But will he retire?

One of the fundamentals of running for election is to get the funds, and Senator Grassley is faltering. He is doing far worse than Raphael Warnock (D-GA), who is comparatively new to this. The poor fundraising suggests that Chck Gtrassley will retire. Iowa swings wildly in elections these days, so if he is not on the ballot, then anything is possible.

No Democrat shows signs of retiring, so I can use yellow for retiring or likely-to-retire Senators whose states will not be sure things. \



So

So...

gray -- no race
dark blue : Republican near-sure thing (I include Alabama)
light blue: Republican edge, but shaky for some reason
red: Democratic near-sure thing
pink: Democratic edge well short of a sure thing
yellow: retiring Republican leaving a potential tossup

...Note that Ron Johnson is undecided about running for re-election, and his early fundraising efforts are most flatteringly described as "lackluster".