04-23-2021, 01:18 AM
As I see it, Ron Johnson of WI, Sen. Toomey's seat in PA, and Tillis' seat in NC are the most vulnerable.
Florida is trending Republican, and Rubio is popular, so I don't see him being defeated.
Ohio and Iowa are trending Republican, so I don't see much chance of turnover there in a midterm election with a Democratic president. Missouri seems even more unlikely.
Murkowski has faced a Republican revolt before and survived. I doubt she can be defeated, but if she is primaried and does not win again as an independent, the odds are the seat will stay Republican, but this hasn't always happened (Begich in 2000), so an upset is possible.
I see New Hampshire, Nevada and Arizona as trending Democratic. So if Biden is doing well, they will stay Democratic. I think Mark Kelly is admired and popular, so he will win despite voter suppression efforts. Warnock is pretty strong in Georgia, so it depends on how well voter suppression works there.
Florida is trending Republican, and Rubio is popular, so I don't see him being defeated.
Ohio and Iowa are trending Republican, so I don't see much chance of turnover there in a midterm election with a Democratic president. Missouri seems even more unlikely.
Murkowski has faced a Republican revolt before and survived. I doubt she can be defeated, but if she is primaried and does not win again as an independent, the odds are the seat will stay Republican, but this hasn't always happened (Begich in 2000), so an upset is possible.
I see New Hampshire, Nevada and Arizona as trending Democratic. So if Biden is doing well, they will stay Democratic. I think Mark Kelly is admired and popular, so he will win despite voter suppression efforts. Warnock is pretty strong in Georgia, so it depends on how well voter suppression works there.