My Millennial Saeculum Theory

[Ghost]

(06-09-2021, 11:21 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(06-09-2021, 04:08 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(06-07-2021, 03:09 PM)galaxy Wrote: *you could argue that the last unambiguous Millennials are the youngest ones who remember 9/11, probably born in 1998, but personally, I really doubt the significance of that event as a major generational marker. It's the "alienating event," corresponding to probably either WWI or the recession of 1920-1921. Though it looms large in people's memories, and there were a few big changes (such as the source of the name of the "Homeland Generation,") the reality is that everyday life in America wasn't really that especially different between 1999 and 2004. The difference between 2008 and 2013 is far more dramatic, with the current ongoing period of political realignment beginning with the 2008 election (analogous to 1968) and the social media/internet revolution taking place from roughly 2010 to 2015.

I insists that the changes started in 2006:
-The Iraqi civil war made the public mood swing in anti-war direction, anti-neocon direction.
-MySpace became fashionable, marking the beginning of internet revolution. In early 2000s it was still commonplace to say computers are only for nerds.
-changes in musical trends, e.g. Amy Winehouse became popular and she was an important figure for early wave millennials

Or you can push it back and say the 3T started to evaporate after Katrina.

Well, turnings never change in an instant. The moment we use to define the start is just the moment when it went from being 51/49 to 49/51. The first signs of the coming 4T came after 9/11, but the country was very clearly in more of an Unraveling mood still. It wasn't definitively Crisis until late 2008. The first signs of the 3T came in the late 70s (around 76 onward maybe), even though it didn't fully begin until the "Morning in America." 1960 presidential campaign ads seem surprisingly "awaken-y," even though that turning didn't begin until several years later. And so on.

We've been seeing emerging 1T features since around 2017, which is part of why I believe we'll reach the start point by around 2025 or so.

1. The "remember 9/11" rule is very flawed and I will even argue abused (like some questionable people born in 1997-1998 claiming to remember things in 1999 and 2000 yet say they're the last that can remember 9/11). Some people can remember things even as babies, while there are a shit ton of people born in 1995 that can't remember 9/11 at all. Preschool is also optional, and some people can even attend daycare at six months old.
   
2. I don't think 1976 had anything 3T about it. Although there were 3T influences as early as 1977 (Star Wars, improvements in technology, the very beginning of the echo boom), I think late 1980 is the absolute earliest you can call 3T because that was when Reagan got elected.
   
3. Even though this is an unpopular opinion (especially on typical generation talk subreddits and websites), 2017 didn't have any 1T features at all. Trump's presidency and the Charlottesville riots are simply unthinkable in a 1T.