06-18-2021, 02:14 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-18-2021, 02:19 PM by Eric the Green.)
(06-18-2021, 07:46 AM)David Horn Wrote:(06-17-2021, 04:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(06-17-2021, 08:13 AM)David Horn Wrote: Yes, there are more Blues than Reds, but the Reds feel under siege. Expect every dirty trick in the book -- and some not written. Just look elsewhere for clues on just how far this can go. The large swaths of social conservatives see this time as existential. I doubt the progressives are as motivated.
I agree that 2022 will tell the tale. Will the miscreants in the GOP succeed in stealing (yes, that's the right word) elections by then? They are certainly trying. If stasis prevents Federal legislation to overturn most of the meddling, then assume 2024 will be crisis in brief.
2022 will be crucial for a successful 4T, but if the Republicans win, the 4T won't be over. Biden will run for re-election and probably win (or at least I hope so; if Kamala is nominated she will lose). So assuming Biden wins again in 2024 then there's 4 more years in which the blue side can carry the day. These days, progressives are more and more motivated. But I agree, the reds feel under siege and we can't underestimate the lengths to which they are already demonstrating they will go.
That's why it's a battle. The confederates felt the same way. The blues were less motivated then too, but like us they were the majority, and they prevailed, and I predict that today's blues will also prevail. But it shows what a fight we truly have on our hands. That just means that the 4T isn't over; not that we have already lost, or even that if we lose in 2022 we will have lost the battle.
But then, I have some faith that the Uranus Return to its degree position in the USA horoscope will still be significant, as it was so significant in the past. It marks the crisis climax, as in 1776, 1861 and 1944, to the degree, and marked the previous crises in the 1690s and 1608 too, and it is not due until 2027. And there's no reason to believe the saeculum is speeding up and can be prematurely cut off just because things still look dark. Mr. Howe doesn't think so. The archetypal 84-year length of a human life, the basis for both cycles, has not changed.
"The tides of man wait for no one". We've moved into a new paradigm twice in the brief history of this republic, and both changes: the Industrial Age and the Information Age, altered the saeculum in subtle but observable ways. One of those changes is the intensity of the dominant Turnings. In the case of 2Ts, communication that took days or weeks before the telegraph became same-day nationwide (and later worldwide). The internet has put that model on steroids. 4Ts were expedited by the railroad and later by automobiles and airplanes. Hypersonic weapons will move that to real time. The intensity level merely follows suit. Look at the last 2T as the first full model. So no, we can't be this way for another 6 to 9 years. If this is a game of attrition, the neo-GOP will probably win long before we reach 2030.
I agree that the saeculum itself is driven by the human life, so adjustments will be take here and give there. Was our last 1T longer? I think it was, by a year or two. I think we've just watched an extended 3T as well.
Again, that's a focus on tech as the driver of civilization and progress. That's not so, as I see it. Politics has slowed down, and that's the key point. It is taking longer to make any shift, for better, or even for worse. The length of human life not having changed, or if anything gotten a bit longer, will confirm the uneven rhythm of the current saeculum, with the last 1T (only 1946-1963 according to S&H) and the previous 4T (1929-1945) being shorter (not longer), and thereby this is extending the 4T to a normal turning length. The 3T (1984-Sept. 2008) lasted longer, and the 4T has been sporadic in its trends; but first a great crash and recession, then a Tea Party and a Trump presidency, and then a covid crisis, plus the ongoing and intensifying global warming crisis, have all made this definitely a 4T since 2008, and one due to last 21 years, the normal length of a turning.
None of this has really been resolved, because political change is stalemated. So the battle still looms, and violence is not off the table-- as we have already seen early this year. Boomers like us cannot put ourselves off the hook, NO SIRREEE! We still must lead the way, even into the 1T starting in around 2028. Social media and the internet has merely made the stalemate stronger and more intense, since each side can spread its views more easily, and the red side's ability to spread misinformation has ballooned as never before. Only changes in thinking (a relatively few people dropping the conservative ideologies) will cause the blue side to get enough of a victory by 2029 to dislodge the stalemate and resolve issues, even if the consensus among the public only extends to about a 56-44 percentage, in a 1T that will be more like the 1870s than the 1950s.