07-09-2021, 07:51 AM
(07-08-2021, 07:30 PM)nguyenivy Wrote: My guess: 2020s decade will be the transition. Will X be the next long-running generation in power or will they get just a couple terms/major players before a multi-decade Millennial run like Boomers had?
The youngest Boomers have already hit the Big Six-Oh. Not many start political careers after age sixty, although one highly-prominent one did. That was a disaster. Any further Boomers approaching high office are already close. The oldest Boomers are approaching the Big Eight-Oh, and even with better health habits, such is still old. Sure, we still have some highly-prominent Silent pols (Pelosi, McConnell, and Biden), but these are clearly the Last Acts of their generation.
The tendency for gerontocracy arises when lifespans increase and expertise is still respected. But even though the GI Generation had a long run, the last GI in the House of Representatives was defeated in a primary election in 2014 at the age of 91. There are limits.
If I am to make any prediction about Boomers, it is that the more reactionary among them are likely to be defeated in all but super-safe districts. Such Boomers who remain relevant will largely be those who can relate to X and Millennial voters. Boomers are starting to vanish in large numbers from the electorate.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.